During the last session before the market shutdown for the Christmas holidays, the dollar ended this Tuesday (12/23) with a sharp decline, a day after closing higher and reaching the highest price in the last five months.
This Tuesday, the financial market reflected the IPCA-15 data, considered a “preview” of the country’s official inflation, and the first reading of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States for the third quarter of this year, which turned out to be higher than expected.
Dollar
- The North American currency ended the second session of the week down 0.95%, trading at R$5.531.
- At the highest exchange rate of the day, the dollar reached R$5.596. The minimum was R$5.53.
- The day before, the dollar ended the session up 0.99%, quoted at R$5.584, the highest value since July 30.
- As a result, the US currency accumulates gains of 3.71% in December and losses of 10.6% in 2025 against the real.
Ibovespa
- Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), was constantly rising in the latter part of the session.
- Around 5 p.m. (Brasilia time), in the last moments of the session, the indicator increased by 1.29%, returning to 160 thousand points (160.1 thousand).
- The day before, Ibovespa closed the session down 0.21%, at 158.1 thousand points
- As a result, the Brazilian Stock Exchange recorded a drop of 0.58% over the month and an appreciation of 31.47% over the year.
Overview of inflation in Brazil
In the economic field, the highlight of the day on the Brazilian agenda was the publication of data from the National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), the so-called “preview” of inflation in the country.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the IPCA-15 was 0.25% in December, or 0.05 percentage points above the November result (0.2%).
With this result, the IPCA-15 closes the year with an increase of 4.41%. In December 2024, the rate was 0.34%.
During the quarter, the indicator was 0.63% for the period from October to December, below the rate of 1.51% recorded during the same period last year.
Of the nine product and service groups surveyed, seven increased in December. The largest variation and largest positive impact came from transportation (0.69% and 0.14 percentage points).
The household goods group (-0.64% and -0.02 pp) recorded the fourth consecutive drop in average prices. Other variations were between the 0.01% decrease in health and personal care and the 0.69% increase in clothing.
The market sees the process of “disinflation” consolidate
According to André Valério, senior economist at Banco Inter, “despite the qualitative deterioration, the December result demonstrates a consolidation of the disinflation process”. “Given the methodological differences, we expect the full IPCA to be slightly better. We expect a first quarter of 2026 with lower inflation, especially compared to the 1st quarter of 2025, which will allow for more pronounced disinflation over the 12-month period, leaving room for Selic reductions to start in the 1st quarter,” he projects.
“We still think that the start in January is likely, but given the caution of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee), we do not exclude that the Central Bank chooses to delay the start until the March meeting,” adds Valério.
Economist Pablo Spyer, an advisor at Ancord, says the December IPCA-15 “conformed to what the market expected, showing inflation still under pressure in services, particularly for items such as airline tickets, but with important signs of relief in household food and industrial goods.”
“This figure reinforces the idea that the disinflation process is still ongoing, albeit irregularly and heterogeneously. The 12-month accumulated inflation remains within the target range, but still above the center, which calls for caution,” he notes.
“For the financial market, the data does not significantly change the baseline monetary policy scenario. BC should maintain a cautious stance, awaiting more consistent evidence of a slowdown in services before making a sharper adjustment to the interest rate path. A cut in January remained below the radar,” Spyer believes.
Matheus Pizzani, economist at PicPay, emphasizes that, despite the strong presence of seasonal factors, “the absence of elements that give a more positive outlook for the performance of the IPCA, particularly in the case of prices of services, does not change the prospective scenario of inflation and monetary policy”.
“In this sense, our projection for the IPCA in 2025 remains at 4.4%, still within the upper limit set by the Inflation Targeting Regime (IMR), while the cycle of interest rate cuts begins in March,” he says.
Bolsonaro cancels his interview
Investors are also closely following political-electoral news in Brazil, highlighting concerns regarding the succession of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in 2026.
In recent weeks, since Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) was informally launched as a potential candidate for President of the Republic with the support of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the market reacted negatively, as it understood that the name of the parliamentarian was not the most competitive in a possible conflict against Lula next year.
Large sectors of the financial market were betting on the choice of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), as the candidate of the right and center-right against the current government. With Flávio in the running, investors are now factoring in Tarcísio’s departure from the presidential succession game and his likely candidacy for re-election to the government of São Paulo.
Still on the political level, the market impatiently awaited the first interview with Jair Bolsonaro (PL) since his arrest. The former president would grant an exclusive interview to Metropolisesthis Tuesday, directly from the Federal Superintendence of Police (PF) prison, where he has been detained since November 22.
It would be the first time the politician spoke to the press since precautionary measures were imposed on him in July, and after he began serving a sentence of 27 years and 3 months in prison after being convicted of coup plotting. The interview was authorized by the Minister of the Federal Court (STF) Alexandre de Moraes.
In a handwritten note, Bolsonaro informed the column of journalist Paulo Cappelli, of Metropoliseswho canceled the meeting. “I inform you that I will not grant an interview on this date, for health reasons,” wrote the former president.
The last time Bolsonaro spoke to the press was on July 15. Three days later, Moraes imposed precautionary measures on Bolsonaro, such as the use of an electronic ankle bracelet and a ban on posting content on social media.
US GDP exceeds expectations
On the international scene, the highlight of this Tuesday was the publication of American GDP data for the third quarter.
The North American economy grew 4.3% in the third quarter of this year, according to data from the Department of Commerce.
The result was well above the estimates of market analysts, who expected an expansion of 3.3% in the third quarter.
In the second quarter of this year, US GDP grew 3.8% on an annual basis (revised data). In the first quarter, it fell by 0.5%.
This is the first release of U.S. GDP data since the shutdown, the country’s government shutdown, which lasted more than 40 days and was the longest in history.
Alpargatas recovers after his millionaire fall
On the stock market, one of the main highlights of the session was the recovery of the shares of Alpargatas, owner of Havaianas, after losses of one million dollars during the previous session.
On Monday, December 22, at the height of a boycott campaign against Havaianas launched by political leaders, activists and right-wing activists in Brazil, Alpargatas shares traded on B3 closed the session lower, resulting in a loss of $1 million for the company in market value.
At the end of the first trading session of this week, Alpargatas shares fell by 2.39%, listed at R$11.44.
In just one day, the company lost around 152 million reais in market value, according to estimates by Elos Ayta Consultoria.
The scenario changed this Tuesday and, when the markets opened, the Alpargatas share reacted. Around 10:20 a.m. (Brasilia time), the company’s shares increased by 1.4%, trading at R$11.60.
The reaction of Alpargatas to the Stock Exchange was consolidated during the trading session. At 2:35 p.m., the shares of the owner of Havaianas recorded an appreciation of almost 3% (2.97%), to R$11.78. In the last part of the session, around 4:40 p.m., the action increased by 3.5%, to R$11.84.
The attack on Havaianas was launched on Sunday (12/21), in a video published by former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), directly from the United States, where he has resided since February.
In the video, Eduardo harshly criticizes a Havaianas ad, featuring actress Fernanda Torres, in which she states that she didn’t want people to start the year “on the right foot.” In the ad, the actress says she prefers Brazilians start 2026 “with both feet.”
The message was interpreted by Eduardo Bolsonaro and several conservative political leaders as a political provocation, with the aim of disqualifying the right and even making subliminal propaganda in favor of the left. In 2026, in a political climate of strong polarization, Brazil will hold presidential elections.
In the video, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears throwing a pair of Havaianas flip-flops in the trash, in retaliation for what he considers to be political propaganda against the conservative camp in Brazil.
Besides Eduardo, other right-wing politicians have spoken out on social networks against Havaianas’ propaganda, such as federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) and senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos-MG).
Analysis
According to Nomad chief strategist Paula Zogbi, the real and Ibovespa enjoyed a strong day of gains after the stress of the previous session, “supported by benign inflation data released in the morning, indicating an IPCA below the BC target ceiling for 2025, at 4.4%.”
“Controlled prices could pave the way for earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts in Brazil, which would be beneficial for risky assets in the domestic market,” he notes.
On the global stage, Zogbi says, “North American GDP grew more than expected in the third quarter, with annualized growth of 4.3%, well above expectations of 3%, demonstrating the consistency of the world’s largest economy, helping to fuel risk appetite.”
“The data is less reliable than usual, due to difficulties in collection and analysis during the US government shutdown, but it defies expectations of sharp falls in interest rates,” he concludes.
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