The dollar rises after the announcement of Flavio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy

The senator stated, via X, that his father appointed him “to continue the nation’s project.”

December 5
2025
– 6:50 pm

(Updated at 6:51 p.m.)




Flavio Bolsonaro next to a poster representing his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in Brasilia, in the Federal District, after he was ordered to be placed in protective custody.

Flavio Bolsonaro next to a poster representing his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in Brasilia, in the Federal District, after he was ordered to be placed in protective custody.

Photo: Wilton Jr./Estadão/Estadão

The dollar rose sharply on Friday the 5th of this month, closing again above R$5.40, after Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) said he had his father’s support to run for president in 2026. The market reaction was immediate and negative, with analysts pointing to increased political uncertainty and frustration regarding investors’ expectations.

Jair Bolsonaro chose him “to entrust the task of continuing our nation’s project,” Flavio wrote on X (formerly Twitter). Speaking to Reuters, party leader Waldemar Costa Neto stated that he learned of the former president’s alleged decision through the senator.

The cash dollar ended the day at 5.4346 Brazilian reais, an increase of 2.34%, the largest percentage jump since October 10, when the currency advanced 2.39%. At the highest level of the day, at 3:59 p.m., the spot dollar rate reached R$5.4841, an increase of 3.27%.

According to the agency, the decision to nominate Flavio is interpreted by the market as a move that makes the candidacy of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), considered the most competitive name among Lula’s opponents and is seen as a favorite among investors.

Economist Andre Perfetto, of Garantia Capital, stressed that the former president’s decision, if confirmed, could “explode” relations between the right he created and more center-aligned parties.

“The market was betting on Tarcisio to build these alliances and pave the way for a right-wing victory in 2026,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We now need to assess whether Flavio Bolsonaro can gather such broad political support again.”

Jair Bolsonaro has been ineligible since 2023, when the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) found him guilty of abuse of power during the 2022 elections. In September, he was found guilty again, of an attempted coup, and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison.