When transitioning and correcting imbalances Business The year 2025 will end with growth overall, albeit with uneven performance. The inflation The trend continued to slow down but entered a phase where it was difficult to go down. Political changes, whether real or expected, resulted in very high volatility in asset prices local financiers.
The “country risk” has reduced to 630 basis points compared to previous highs, but is still higher than at the beginning of the year (550 basis points). The index of Argentine stocks Measured in “free dollars”, the situation was similar; it is currently 5% below the start of the year. During the same period, the type of official changeThe peso depreciated against the dollar by 13% adjusted for retail inflation and by around 22% in the multilateral version, a difference explained in particular by the appreciation of the Brazilian real. All of this within the framework of a not insignificant excess Primary box in the Budget execution.
We are now entering a new phase of deepening Changes The aim is to address important pending issues for consolidation stabilization while prioritizing productive transition to achieve sustainable expansion in a changing international context. Among other things, we highlight the following challenges:
– Refine the exchange/currency/financial system: With this in mind, we think it is likely that there will be a greater supply of foreign exchange in the US local foreign exchange market. This would arise from the perspective of trading accounts and in particular from the demand for pesos resulting from the liquidity of companies obtained through the liquidation of currency given the access they have to external funding. With these elements, collect reserves and define the path to increasing the “Shares“for companies would lead to greater standardization.
To reduce systemic governance risk in Argentina, it would be helpful to differentiate the roles of the BCRA and the Ministry of Finance, while setting rules of the game that help level and stabilize markets over time. The BCRA ultimately intervenes to mitigate and address temporary changes balance. This includes, for example, participating in the foreign exchange market by paying attention to fluctuations in the supply and demand of pesos or dollars, but taking precautions to smooth out fluctuations between parities and currencies monetary costs of the different currencies. He Treasure participate in satisfying their needs and take care of the tax result.
– Broaden the base of support for fiscal policy through regulatory updates that encourage private investment: This includes the discussion of Budget 2026 and their sanctioning, maintaining balance criteria, and updates in the allocation of spending priorities and forms of collection that promote the competitiveness of economic activity. In this sense, Argentina has resources particularly limited ones that require very careful management.
Furthermore, it means evolving Standards that make private investments under public supervision Infrastructure areasincrease investments but seek to mitigate the risks associated with possible unforeseeable changes to the terms and conditions of the awards.
– Increase activity and employment levels as commercial integration conditions change: This aspect forms the basis of supporting the economic-social apparatus with diverse derivations. Argentina finds an important part of it Economic structure and social instead towards more competitive forms. However, it is currently additionally affected by commercial management not taken into account in a traditional competition system, with significant inequality (e.g. situations suggesting dumping practices).
They assume Tensions due to particularly strong storms next year. The challenges that arise require a particular pragmatism to face them without losing general direction, although they are adapted to events over which we have limited control greater influence of geopolitics.
– Adapting regulations that promote efficiency and flexibility: There are certain aspects of the institutional-legal framework that define the operational framework of the formal economy that are not suitable for decision-making by law Economic actors They neither contribute to the development of society as a whole nor do they offer everyone involved the same skills base. We mention problems in the field of work and taxes, among other things.
That these issues require coordination and review in multiple areas Jurisdictions and cases should not be an excuse for not advancing that goal.
In summary, it can be said that there is a course of corrections Economic performance and progress on certain fronts. It’s not realistic to try to solve all problems challenges all at once or in very limited times.
That is, there are several outstanding tasks, including addressing certain aspects, that require review. Although the outlook is for the coming year auspiciousits realization requires the continuous confrontation with various aspects such as those mentioned above, problems, also with the associated difficulties of going through a process sustainable growth.
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