In October, the Monthly Economic Activity Estimate (EMAE) was recorded an annual growth of 3.2% compared to the same month in 2024, At the same time, however, there was a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous month.
ThereforeAfter a meager expansion in the July-September quarter, the economy contracted againAnd. The last time there was negative data was in June when the EMAE fell 0.4%.
Cumulative growth so far this year is 5%. But private analysts estimate that 2025 It will finish with a slightly smaller expansion, which will be between 4 and 4.5%. This upswing is taking place against the backdrop of a recessionary year like 2024.
The data provided by the EMAE is preliminary and could be corrected in the coming months. That’s exactly what happened when the September issue of EMAE was released the forecasts for the last two months have been revised upwards, it went from slightly negative to briefly positive.
This allowed the activity to avoid the recession and closed the third quarter with an increase of 0.3%.
Thirteen of the fifteen items that make up the report have increased compared to the previous year. When analyzing activities by sector Financial intermediation with 27% and fishing with 91% They are the areas that are growing the most year-on-year.
In the case of financial intermediation, the consulting firm ACM points out that “the strong performance is not due to a significant expansion of loans, but to the.” Increase in implicit intermediation margins against a backdrop of high interest rate volatility and asymmetries in the adjustment between active and passive tariffs, which increased the added value of the sector.
The exploitation of mines and quarries, in turn, developed positively, especially through the extraction of crude oil and natural gas as well as through the extraction of non-metallic minerals.
However, those most affected are the manufacturing sector, which fell by 2.7%, and the hotel and catering sector, which fell by 1%, always compared to October 2024.
September data continues to show that the economic recovery is weak It is tied to some sectors who have shown exceptional performance. Consulting firm LCG points out that “excluding the contribution of agriculture, mining and financial intermediation, annual growth would have declined to 0.8% in October and to 2.8% in the full 10 months.”
“It can be observed that sectors with an important relative weight in total GDP and a large part of employment are concentrated, have developed less dynamically both in the month of analysis and in the cumulative year,” adds ACM.
Average, Activity increased 0.1% monthly over the past 10 months. “For the future, we still see an uncertain recovery, linked to economic, social and political problems and with clear differences,” mentions LCG.
The consultancy adds that “post-election stability and interest rate cuts may provide some boost to lending, but.” We don’t think it will work the way it did in 2024“.
One of the points that has yellow lights flashing for 2024 is this Crime is increasing. The latest official data shows that consumer portfolio irregularity reached 7.8% in October this year, the highest level in 15 years.
The LCG projection is that This year’s growth will average about 4.5% per year. For 2026, despite lower statistical resistance (0.7 percentage points), we forecast a recovery of around 2.5% on annual average, although still highly concentrated in a few sectors (oil, mining, agriculture), driving sectoral inequality.”
“In our base scenario, we assume a growth forecast of 4.3% for 2025 a heterogeneous dynamic between sectors and a performance led by those related to natural resources and services,” explains ACM.
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