José Manuel Trujillo,Professor in the field of political science at the Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, analyzes these elections in Extremadura in their context and with an eye towards future Andalusian elections. The political scientist recognizes that during an election period, “ … There is always a cyclical component, and these votes happened that way”, but “in these times, the last days before the elections are crucial: before 80-90% had their vote decided before the campaign and now we are heading towards figures of 60-70%. There are therefore almost two other players undecided, which forces the match to be fought until added time.
Trujillo comments that the elections “they reflect the growth of Vox and the erosion of the PSOE”, These are the commonalities that generate “a drag effect”. “With a PP that manages to maintain itself (or even improve); that is to say a consolidation or an enlargement (depending on each territory) of the right-wing bloc”, he confirms. There is “a difficulty of competition for the PSOE in historically key territories, which can also be extrapolated to Andalusia”.
“Then there are phenomena that cannot be extrapolated, such as the presence of Unidos por Extremadura, which has no correspondence in Andalusia”, one of the most “interesting” facts in this quote. » It is probably not only the effect of the collaboration between IU and Podemos (which helped) but also the fact that a better coexistence of organizations and territorial structures with a certain weight is important for a part of the left to go to the polls and opt for this alliance.
Regarding the figures of María Guardiola and Juanma Moreno, he sees a certain similarity “for trying to mark some differential tone with Vox on certain issues such as gender violence, the effects of climate change or immigration”, in search of moderation in two historically left-wing communities. » Also in the fact that they hear emphasize good management as an electoral asset, while being considered as clearly regional or even regionalist brands above the PP mark.
Everything indicates that “some transfers between blocks could have taken place Well, the right managed to get almost two thirds of the votes and seats, so this had to happen on top of demobilization. Hence also greater abstention.
Crucial last days
In addition to this first call, José Manuel Trujillo believes that among the three nominations, those that can most resemble the Andalusian one are those of Castilla y León (for the PP) and those of Aragon (for the PSOE). “María Guardiola did not show the wear and tear that Juanma Moreno can have after years of government. Alfonso Fernández Mañueco has been president since 2019, like Moreno, and had to face the fire crisis, as happened in Andalusia with the projections.
This differs depending on the main opponent. In Castile, the socialist candidate is the semi-unknown Carlos Martínez (mayor of Soria). To the Community of Aragon, on the other hand, Pedro Sánchez sent his minister Pilar Alegría, at the time spokesperson for his government, a clear parallel is therefore established with Maria Jesus Montero.
Trujillo insists on the crucial importance of the moment. “Previously, it was estimated that between seven and eight out of ten people already had a clear idea of their vote. NOW, “There are almost two others undecided, so it will be decisive to activate or demobilize them.”. This procrastination “has more influence on young people” and mainly results in greater or lesser participation. “We have gone from a two-party competition to a competition between blocs”, so more than the fluctuation of votes, it is the discomfort with his own which generates greater abstention.
Consumption of political entertainment
In recent years, a “minute and result” has also been introduced, as in football. “There is significant political action within the entertainment consumptionwith “zascas”, interactions on social networks, and has penetrated very deeply into this area.
All elections have a “cyclical component” and the last Andalusian elections were “less participatory” than the previous ones. It is impossible to guess in what range those of 2026 will evolve, but “If it coincides with the general election, more people will vote” and this mobilizes many of those who could have stayed home because they had no clear option. “The one who benefits the most from common participation is the PSOE,” interprets Trujillo. “I believe that abstention harms the left.” Demobilization can also occur with dates. “The weather is not good in summer or during the fair period. Holidays are the worst time,” exactly what Pedro Sánchez did in 2023 (July 23).
What mobilizes the most? Illusion or fear? “It depends,” the professor mused. “Hope mobilizes in a more transversal way. “Positive emotions come from more fishing grounds and can be used to cross natural ideological boundaries.” For example, between the PSOE and the PP. “Fear is more linked to anger or the arrival of bad guys,” and it evolves within the same bloc towards more extremist or populist positions. “Pedro Sánchez did well in Spain but poorly in Andalusia. At the national level, they mobilized their electorate, but at the regional level, votes were concentrated in the People’s Party. Using the strategy of fear can work well if you are a refuge option against this possible decision.
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