2025 was the year when the market challenged the hegemony of the dollar as the reference currency and safe haven on a global scale. Although analysts do not believe that the American currency has already lost its champion status … Worldwide, the sanction has indeed been notable and could get worse next year, based on expert comments. For now, throughout the year fell a13.6% against the euroleaving the single currency as the big winner of the dollar crisis.
This is its biggest drop since 2017, when the euro appreciated by just over 14% against the greenback. And the fact that the dollar is falling and the euro is increasing has its reason for being in the the politics of the American presidentDonald Trump: threats to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, tariff war…
From April and May, major investment banks and fund managers, such as JP Morgan or Goldman Sachsalerted the market to doubts about the dollar as a safe-haven currency because the United States had become an unpredictable country. And they presented the euro as an alternative. This idea has been consolidated, even if placing the currency of the Old Continent at the top of the world remains something difficult to imagine, even for analysts.
Currently the change is 1,175 dollars for each euro. 2024 ended at $1,035, which is almost a low for the current year. In September, the dollar had its worst performance when it rose to 1.1919 against the euro, ending the year with slightly less punishment.
Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, says that “The US dollar weakened significantly in 2025defying the strong expectations of President Trump’s protectionist policies. “Markets have been roiled by tariff threats, potential taxes on foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and attempts to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to hedge against dollar devaluation.”
This protection that you speak of focused on the euro, where a monetary policy with lower rates compared to its American counterpart favored the price of the single currency. Faced with this situation, as Trump plunges into global uncertainty, this manager predicts “that the dollar will continue to be under pressure in 2026”.
dollars for every euro
This is the current exchange rate between the two currencies. A drop of 13.6% for the greenback.
Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at Wellington Management, also comments that the weakness of the greenback also affects the credit quality of the United States, as it causes to a large extent that a large part of capital leaves the country to other regions of the world, in particular to Europe, which is the big beneficiary. “The stagnation of its profitability could be a sign of a running out of steam in American exceptionalism, which would jeopardize its historic status as a safe haven asset. This currency has long been the primary global reserve currency, used to set prices and settle international transactions involving raw materials and a wide range of products. If the dollar lost this status, there would be a structural deterioration which would affect portfolio currency hedging strategies and accelerate the rotation of US risky assets, such as stocks, while substantially changing the standard of living of the real economy in the United States,” adds this analyst.
Precisely, in the European Central Bank (ECB) They follow the Euro-dollar comparison very closely due to the loss of hegemony of the American currency. In the Old Continent’s current attempt to gain global importance and its own sovereignty, the idea that the euro has greater weight as a currency is very popular in Frankfurt. 2026 could be the year of confirmation of this possible reversal, if only in part.
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