Hyperselective shopping, the search for more accessible products on the shelves, the option of supermarkets’ own brands and, above all, “bag purchases”, which particularly benefit self-service shops, shops and kiosks in front of large stores, are beginning to be a new normal in times when “I couldn’t make ends meet” became one Leitmotif for the Argentines.
In this context, several consulting firms – data presented – emphasized that the end of the year was difficult for mass consumption, which in 2025 experienced a very slow and heterogeneous recovery, consistent with salaries in some segments, but above all with disposable income that remains in homes after paying fixed costs (public services).
This was raised, for example, by the consumer consulting company Scentia. “After several months of positive variation, the sum of all measured channels returns to the negative sign, albeit slightly, -0.1% compared to November 2024. This “draw” is due to a bad month for supermarkets and pharmacies. in addition to a slowdown in the recovery of the traditional channel. In any case, the cumulative value for the year is positive +2.2%,” the company estimated.
“After the improvement of the first semester, There was a pause in the recovery in consumption in the third quarter. “With lower purchasing frequency and tighter shopping baskets, households are ending the year with greater pressure on their budgets and polarized expectations.” agreed with Numerator’s Worldpanel where they reported a 0.7% decline in consumption in the last quarter which slowed the 1.5% recovery between January and September.
A NielsenIQ report showed that mass consumption will continue in 2025 “A fragile recovery.” It showed that it grew by +2% in the first half of the year, but slowed down since the middle of the year. “Aggravated by election uncertainty in the third quarter” as he emphasized. According to NIQ, Consumption increased in 2025, but only by +2% compared to 2024, after a historic decline of -16% the previous year.
In the third quarter of the year – compared to the same period in 2024 – all categories recorded declines in supermarkets: cleaning (-10%), S&T (+0%), groceries (-2%), dairy (-7%) and beverages (-5%). On average, 73% of categories also showed improvements in promotional sales, a sign of the crisis.
In line with what the market sees, the private consumption index (which includes more products from the economy than from the masses) from the University of Palermo recorded a monthly decline of 1.1% in November this year. Notably, this is the second consecutive decline as well as a lack of sustained growth since July, they said.
According to Scentia, supermarkets recorded a 7.2% year-on-year decline in November (representing a 5.3% year-on-year decline); Wholesalers: 7.5% (-5.5% for the full year); independent supermarkets improved 2.8% in 12 months but lost 0.2% cumulatively; Pharmacies, -6.9% (+2.8% in 2025 total); E-commerce, +13.2% compared to November 2024 and +12.3% year-to-date; and K+T (warehouses and kiosks), an increase of +3.8% compared to the same month last year and +10% cumulative. “In supermarkets and wholesalers, all baskets were negative, while in self-service stores and traditional soft drinks they decreased.” They qualified for Scentia and showed the channel mix.
In Worldpanel by Numerator they indicated that families reduced both visits to points of sale (-2.2%) and the volume of their purchases (-2.1%), “a double pressure that explains the decline in the last period in almost the entire country, with the only exception in the shopping center.”
This report also shows that the percentage of buyers who declare that they will reach the end of the month is 43%. (in the first quarter of the year it was 29%). In this sense, mass consumption is becoming more selective and prioritizing the purchase of essential products such as dry foods (+0.8%), dairy products (+0.5%) and personal care products (+1.9%), “which, along with chilled foods, are the categories with the greatest growth between January and September.” The most non-essential categories with the largest price increases fell, such as alcoholic beverages (-4.8%). In addition, many households are increasingly looking for more accessible alternatives: In the third quarter, brands in the cheapest segment increased their purchasing volume by 2.3% and stores’ own brands increased by 6.8%.
For the overall period between January and September, the largest change was seen among low-income households, “where the share of economy brands in the shopping mix increased from 28.1% to 45.1% year-on-year,” reflecting the decline in brand participation in this segment. mainstreamwhile the premium models remain stable.
“Today, 39% of spending comes from promotions,” emphasized Esteban Cagnoli, CEO of Worldpanel by Numerator.
“The recovery in salaries is generally stagnant, and while the middle and low NSE (socio-economic level) continue to support the rise in household costs, the high NSE is changing its share of the purse: FMCG (the consumption of fast-moving goods) is no longer desirable, and travel, cars and other consumer goods are making a strong re-emergence. We expect consumption to grow slightly in 2026, but there is still a long way to go before returning to previous levels.” explained Julián Fernández, Analytics Manager of NielsenIQ Argentina.
At the University of Palermo They pointed out As for general consumption indicators, inflation-adjusted VAT revenues recorded a year-on-year decline of 5.4% in November. This represents the first annual decline in 2025. Furthermore Consumer credit is growing, but more slowly.
Durable goods saw the largest overall decline in November. with a decrease of 10.7% in motorcycle sales year-on-year. Sales of cement bags were also “continuously declining”. Although car registrations recorded positive data in November with an increase of 2.6%, There is also a strong delay there. Selling clothes in shopping malls recorded losses for five consecutive months.
Eating out reflected October a decline of 4% compared to the previous year. In addition, beef consumption Year-on-year, it fell 5.1% this month. Poultry meat consumption increased by 11.7%. Evidence that more “affordable” proteins are being sought.
In collaboration with Willem Hooper
About The Author
