2025 is coming to an end. After the government’s landslide victory in the elections Legislative elections on October 26Where he excelled 40% of the votes and “paint 15 areas purple”Attention is now focused on Budget 2026 and Structural reforms -Employment and taxes-, which are invoiced It will be sent to Congress based on the new composition of the two chambers.
Without the electoral uncertainty involved, but with concerns about the upcoming debates in Parliament, economists who participated in the new elections El Cronista Macroeconomic Outlook Survey (EMEC) Expect How the major economic variables will close this year.
The survey, in which eight consulting firms participated from November 25 to December 1, predicts that he Official dollar It will have a slight jump compared to its closing value in November. Meanwhile, specialists maintain Current exchange rate system (of gangs) and Reserve accumulation rate.
On inflationary issues, the companies consulted appreciate this The last two measurements Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be above 2%. On the side Economic activityAnd they expect that Administration of President Javier Miley You will reach Growth approaching 4% in 2025.
Dollar: How much will the currency reach in December 2025?
“I feel comfortable with Any dollar price within the range what will it be?. I’m relieved because I know he can’t go over the band’s ceiling. I’d rather he not go to the exchange squad floor. “If it is much lower today, it will not benefit the economy,” Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in an interview with LN+.
He added: “If we float, it could work well. But this decision, risk-adjusted, is not worth it. Because What we do with bands gradually emerges. We achieve the same effect but give people more peace of mind. If the dollar rises to the ceiling of the range, it will not go from there. So go to sleep peacefully, nothing will happen to the dollar.“.
Former head of the Treasury Palace An exchange rate of about $1,500 was considered appropriateThis is a point agreed upon by the analysts who consulted with them.
Specifically, the average of economists’ answers is expected to be the official (retail) dollar. The year could close in $1500. Sources consulted at the November EMEC meeting expected this The exchange rate can go up the $1545 At the end of this year.
This again means a slight slowdown compared to last month’s expectations, Which already showed a significant decline in the October poll.
“We do not expect a jump in the exchange rate in the coming monthsBut at a higher rate compared to November There was a rise in the exchange rate again. Especially given the debt obligations the Treasury has to face and the pressures that additional tourism demand will pose in the summer. filtering High levels of dollar debt held by companies (like Techpetrol, YBF, Pampa Energiaamong other things),” he noted Historian Claudio Caparoloeconomist and manager Analytical consulting.
regarding Parallel exchange rate (blue dollar)Economists estimate that it will be present in $1490.8 At the end of December. At the same time, Calculated Dollar with Adjustment (CCL) – The currency you allow access to Dollars abroad through buying and selling stocks or securities – the year will end in $1540.
BCRA reserves
he Dollar level Subordinate Central Bank (BCRA) and Monetary chart These are topics of discussion among economists. According to EMEC estimates, International reserves It will be the headquarters of the entity headed by Santiago Boselli 42,027 million US dollars At the end of this year.
It is worth noting that in the period leading up to the midterm elections –The moment when demand for coverage skyrocketedThe government received strong financial support from the United States.
Only one was not agreed upon US$20 billion swap line; The first tranche of which was activated in the amount of 2.5 billion US dollars, according to the latest balance of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, but also The US Treasury intervened in the single and free exchange market (MULC) To prevent the wholesale exchange rate Exceeding the float range ceilingadjusted daily at 1% per month.
“the government Betting on seasonal demand for the December peso To start buying reserves without putting pressure on the exchange rate or demand for Treasuries. At the moment, without a confirmed offer Beyond that resulting from corporate placement“They can only make small purchases, which is also limited by the lack of resources to purchase them from the treasury.” EcoGo Consulting.
According to private calculations, net reserves (with the deduction of IMF payments and gains from gold and yuan price differences, among others) It is negative by -$16,000 million.
“The revised objective of the agreement It is scheduled to reach -3000 million AUD by December 2025Which seems impossible. Minister Caputo expected that non-compliance would be within what was expected because the targets had been designed for another context, taking into account the need to address debt payments. We will have to see how the IMF reacts to the second exemption request“, they add from Basic life-saving condom consultations.
Inflation: What economists expect by the end of 2025
after Indic He announced that the CPI for October was 2.3% – the highest since April – and the average of responses showed that In November, inflation will remain under the same standards.
The companies consulted also expect prices to rise in December stabilizes at 2.1%. that way, Cumulative difference In the twelve months of the year this is the case 29.2%while Year after year – According to economists’ responses – it will be present in it 30.25%.
he International Monetary Fundthrough Global economic prospectsIt is estimated in October that he The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will end in 2025 With an annual increase of 28% (Average 41.3% over the year).
Meanwhile, average answers predict that inflation may be less than 2%. February (1.7%) For the year 2026, in light of this In January it will be placed at 2%.. This trend will continue March (1.9%) and April (2.6%).
GDP: How economic activity will arrive at the end of 2025
EMEC results indicate that growth gross domestic product will be 4.2% At the end of this year.
In April, the International Monetary Fund expected an expansion of… 5.5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. These numbers have been revised downward in the latest review. The current estimate is 4.5% by 2025So the average answers will be less than this estimate.
The decline in expectations, according to the document, is due to: Internal factors (The policy of consolidating public finances and reducing the private consumption boost). external (Global slowdown and more restrictive financial conditions).
The truth is that after Monetary pressure The government implemented a moderate exchange rate policy; Offering “more attractive” – higher interest ratesThe activity felt the effect of said action: e.g. Financial conditions for obtaining credit have been tightened.
“the Post-election stability and Reducing the interest rate They will be able to give some credit supportBut we don’t think this will continue to grow in the same way as it did in 2024 (consumer portfolio churn reaches 7.3%, maximum in 15 years). The key will continue to lie with the external sector, but we realize that the contribution to growth will remain less. With exports growing at the margin (beyond Vaca Muerta) and imports being released“, detailed from Basic life-saving condom consultations.
regarding Monthly Estimated Economic Activity (EMAE) for SeptemberINDEC reported that Data for July and August were revised upward. that way, Third quarter increased by 0.5%,
However, this raised a wave of questions, noting that the correction prevented entry into A “Technical stagnation”This usually happens when accumulating Two consecutive quarters in a negative trend.
“The reality is that with the recent EMAE correction, activity is growing 1% above the December 2024 level. Now, This is the average for all sectors of the economy.. In particular, there are sectors that may have more scope for future growth than others, or at least more clearly.” Historian Florencia Iraguieconomic expert Basic life-saving condoms.
About EMC
the El Cronista Macroeconomic Outlook Survey (EMEC) Conducted once a month since June 2016. This survey includes Banks, consulting companies, research centers and investment advisorswho are asked to answer a form containing thirty questions about 12 major macroeconomic and national financial variables.
In the December edition they participated LCG, Analytica, ABECEB, Management and Suitability, EcoGo, Equilbra, MapLatam, and Rafaela Capital.