Spain is doing well. This sentence has been said so many times Jose Maria Aznar When he was at the head of the Spanish government (1996-2004), it is valid in 2025. Data from the Bank of Spain supports it. In its latest report, published this Tuesday, the institution led by Jose Luis Escrivá assures that the country maintains one solid growth rate: Increases GDP growth in 2025 by three and revises increase for forecasts.
However, this does not directly mean that the Spanish are doing well and have no economic problems. Salaries are growing little, Real estate prices are going through the roof and they can hardly allocate a portion of their income to savings and leisure. This is because a country’s growth is measured by GDP, which is not directly related to people’s daily lives. This indicator controls the total production of goods and services in a country during a year, but does not relate to citizens’ pockets.
If we go back to the data from the Bank of Spain, the regulator warns about this, although they are positive There are several risk factors which the country must pay special attention if this optimistic scenario is to become a reality. These external and internal risks could alter the expected development of growth, employment and inflation. In this article we describe the five main sources of uncertainty that, according to the Bank of Spain, may affect Spain’s immediate economic future and to which either the current government of Pedro Sánchez or any other that may come should pay attention.
The Spanish economy operates in an international environment that continues to be characterized by geopolitical instability and uncertainty regarding trade relations. We see it every day. If we are not talking about a new tariff from China on Spanish pork, but on dairy products in the European Union, we are talking about general taxes on European exports that Donald Trump introduced. In this sense, 2025 has been a year of much movement and the Bank of Spain emphasizes that while recent agreements between the United States, China and other partners have temporarily reduced the risk of a trade war, The situation remains fragile.
“The trade agreement between the world’s two main economies is temporary and, given the remarkable unpredictability of economic policy, a scenario of the introduction of new tariffs or the establishment of non-tariff barriers cannot be ruled out,” says the text published by the regulator, referring to the short term.
In addition, China’s recent decision to restrict exports of rare earths – essential materials for the technology and energy industries – proves this Vulnerability of global supply chains. Such measures may lead to price increases and supply difficulties in key sectors. In this context, any increase in trade or geopolitical tensions could have a direct impact on Spain’s exports, investments and economic growth.
The second major risk that the Bank of Spain identifies is related to the development of financial markets. In recent quarters, international stock markets have posted all-time highs, driven in part by the rise of technology companies those associated with artificial intelligence. However, the report warns that this upward trend has been accompanied by periods of volatility and doubts about the true valuation of some assets, particularly in the technology sector.
A sudden price correction by these companies could trigger a global adjustment in financial markets. This scenario would have consequences for the real economy: the tightening of financing conditions would have an impact on companies and families, could restrict investment and consumption, and question financial stability. The Bank of Spain emphasizes that this risk is particularly relevant in a context where the Spanish economy remains at high risk to international capital flows.
The evolution of salaries and business margins in Spain represents another critical point for the future development of the economy. The Bank of Spain says that the salary increases agreed so far will be maintained above the marked references in current collective agreements. If this trend continues or increases without being accompanied by an improvement in productivity, it may lead to additional pressure on inflation and a loss of competitiveness for Spanish companies.
The Bank of Spain emphasizes the importance of achieving a balance between the evolution of salaries, productivity and business margins
Additionally, the report warns that business margins are not absorbing some of the increase labor costsCompanies could pass these increases on to final prices and thus extend the persistence of inflation. An environment with higher than expected inflation can impact both the purchasing power of families and the ability of companies to invest and create jobs. For this reason, the Bank of Spain emphasizes the importance of achieving a balance between the evolution of salaries, productivity and business margins.
He Housing market In Spain it is one of the risks. It can become unstable if supply does not respond well to demand. This means that if housing supply cannot keep up with increasing demand, there could be an increase in prices, which would have an impact on both inflation and the accessibility of housing for large parts of the population.
In addition, too rapid growth in housing investment could lead to imbalances, the reversal of which would have a negative impact on the overall economy. The Bank of Spain emphasizes the need to closely monitor the development of this sector Avoid bubbling or abrupt corrections.
On the other hand, the Bank of Spain report points out that one of the factors causing uncertainty in the real estate market is the development of the real estate market Issuance of visas for the construction of new houses. In this sense, the warning from the regulator is as follows:
- If the number of building permits issued remains low or declines, the supply of new housing could fall short of the current high demand.
- This lack of supply response to growing demand may lead to a further increase in house prices, which in turn would affect families’ access to housing and general price levels (inflation).
- Should there be a noticeable increase in the issuing of visas and thus in housing construction in the future, there could be an upswing in economic activity. However, if this boom does not continue or slows down, it could lead to instability in the industry and the economy as a whole.
“In a context characterized by administrative and regulatory frictions in both land production and construction, this development suggests that housing investment may be losing momentum.”YoThe same will be true in the coming years compared to what was observed in 2025. However, the significant increase in demand for housing, driven by migration flows and net new housing construction suggest that housing construction could gain momentum in the coming years,” the document said.
In recent months, Spain has managed to sell abroad many services that have nothing to do with tourism, such as: IT, communications or professional consulting work. These exports have contributed significantly to the economy continuing to grow, especially because sales of products such as machinery and food were weaker.
The Bank of Spain warns that this good pace may not last forever. If world trade slows down, if demand for these services changes in other countries, or if Spanish companies face more competition, it is possible that less will be exported. If that happens and Spain also starts importing more than expected, the economy could lose one of its most important supports. For this reason, the report recommends monitoring how these exports develop and how companies adapt to changes in the international market.
These five sources of risk identified by the Bank of Spain mark the Spanish economy’s roadmap for the coming years. Its monitoring and management will be crucial for the positive economic forecasts to come true and for the country to take full advantage of the current growth context.
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