The December Genial/Quaest investigation sheds light on the Flávio Bolsonaro factor and the impact of his nomination, at least for now, as his father’s replacement in the presidential race. The rapid absorption of his name by the electorate and the fact that, in the simulation of the second round, he managed to reduce Lula’s disadvantage in the second round scenario by 6 percentage points should fuel today’s tense negotiations between the Centrão and the right to define the electoral strategy.
The survey data served as a bucket of cold water for those trying to reverse Jair Bolsonaro’s decision in favor of the choice of São Paulo governor, Tarcísio de Freitas. This group includes party leaders from the Centrão and representatives of the financial market, agribusiness and business. The announcement that Bolsonaro, arrested for attempted coup, had opted for his son had already pushed Tarcísio to remove the team from the field. Even his new allies, like São Paulo Mayor Ricardo Nunes, began publicly admitting their support for Flávio.
If the investigation revealed a greater rejection of Bolsonaro’s name on the ballot, supporters of an option more acceptable to centrist voters would call on the father to reconsider his decision, under the argument that by making life easier for Lula during the campaign, he would risk spending many years in prison, excluding the possibility of a pardon.
Those who advocate the Tarcísio solution remain skeptical about Flávio’s chances of victory, given the “low ceiling” of his candidacy caused by the rejection of fundamental Bolsonarism. But they recognize that this good start makes the chances of a recalculation of the route difficult.
On the Planalto side, the figures did not cause alarm. Flávio was already expected to move slightly away from the group of aspiring right-wing candidates, precisely because of the recent announcement of Bolsonaro’s decision. The survey figures, analyzed together, encouraged Lula’s supporters. The biggest asset, for them, is the balance of the tariff series.
Recognition of the importance of the president’s action to overcome the crisis (71% of those surveyed) far exceeds that of those who approved of his government (48%) and those who said they voted for Lula in the second round (45% or 46%, depending on the scenario). Those who admit that Lula did better than the Bolsonarists during the confrontation also win: 54% against 24%.
These data reinforce, among the strategists of Lula’s re-election campaign, the bet that the Bolsonarista DNA, which always slides into instability and chaos, will be an important asset for him to conquer the voter that Quaest describes as independent, corresponding to 32% of the sample interviewed. Therefore, having someone from the clan as an opponent would be the best of all worlds.
Even the analysis of well and poorly rated areas of government was carried out optimistically within the PT and in government sectors. The improvement of the economic climate and the large-scale approval of public policies that will be the flagships of the campaign, such as the electricity exemption for the poorest (75%) or the income tax for those who earn up to R$5,000 per month (69%) were aspects considered promising to improve Lula’s approval and, therefore, his voting intentions.
The point of attention mentioned by the allies is, as expected, public safety. An indicator lit up orange: violence is the biggest concern throughout the country, but even more so in the Northeast, the region in which Lula rules and where the PT has its few governments. The focus on this issue, along with the economy, is seen as crucial for it to be competitive in October 2026.
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