The agro-industrial complex, one of the largest foreign exchange generators for the local economy, showed a significant decline in November settlements, reporting operations worth US$759.7 million, as reported on Monday, December 1 by the Chamber of Oil Industry (CIARA) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC). The data indicate a monthly decline of 32% compared to October, which was already low, although the exporting entities explained that the dynamic responds to the shipping calendar and the FX advance process, and not to the sector contraction.
After a record high in September, the field settled 84% lower in October 2025
It should be noted that last September, as a result of the special regime DNU 682/2025, the figure recorded a jump of 187% compared to the same month of 2024 and an increase of 291% compared to August of this year with the temporary removal of deductions established by the government to accelerate field liquidation and stimulate foreign exchange income.
As a result of this action, in The export quota was met in just 3 days This sparked violent reactions from agricultural entities, which came out with their final ceiling to clarify that the DNU agreement only benefits grain exporting companies. Politicians and even international media such as the Financial Times joined the criticism. To avoid criticizing the supposed subsidies for grain companies, the government supports the idea that prices rise in the domestic market and that this improves the pockets of producers.
In any case, data on accumulated settlements show that foreign exchange income between January and November grew by 24% compared to the same period in 2024. This improvement is due to the higher volume processed, better relative prices in the first part of the year and, above all, to the effects of settlements. The special system of Decree 682/2025This temporarily suspended export duties and caused an increase in foreign sales.
Impact of Decree 682/2025 and foreign currency advances
The entities confirm that November was marked by the completion of already scheduled shipments and milling allocated for future exports under the special decree scheme. This led to the entry of a large portion of the currencies associated with these operations at the beginning of September.
The industry explained that the advance of foreign currency is a structural feature of the sector:
*When exporting wheatIncome is a little advanced 30 days Before boarding.
* in Oils and protein flourthe anticipation can reach 90 daysDue to the complexity of the industrial process.
Therefore, the monthly figures should be interpreted within the business cycle and not as signs of delay or retention, as CIARA and CEC have insisted.
The business cycle distorts comparisons
The entities reiterate that comparisons between different months or even between different years can be inaccurate due to multiple external factors that determine agricultural liquidation. among them:
*International price differences.
* Changes in available offer.
* Protein sizes and quality vary depending on the campaign.
* Climatic conditions that may lead to advance or delay of marketing.
* Holidays or union strikes affecting port logistics.
* Domestic regulatory adjustments or external tariff barriers.
* Health or quality requirements of purchasing countries.
The sector insists that these elements mean that foreign exchange settlement cannot be read as a linear relationship between harvest, sales and exports, but rather as a process that integrates advances, milling, scheduled shipments and external conditions that change from one campaign to the next.
Views on the new campaign
At the end of 2025 and the beginning of the heavy harvest period, the market will remain conditioned by regulatory movements and the development of the transitional export duty scheme. The industry expects grain supply and global prices to be a key factor in determining the pace of liquidation in the first quarter of 2026.
On the other hand, November leaves a double signal: lower monthly volume but annual performance clearly outperforming that of 2024, which indicates that, even amidst volatility, agribusiness remains the main support of dollar income in the Argentine economy.
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