The forecast by Geoffrey Hinton, known as the “godfather of artificial intelligence,” sees 2026 as a turning point in the evolution of technology and predicts a scenario in which AI will become so advanced that it will replace an ever-broader range of jobs.
This warning, made in a recent interview with CNN’s “State of the Union,” underscores both the magnitude of technological advances and the profound impact they will have on the global structure of work and wealth distribution.
In his analysis Hinton notes that the speed of progress in artificial intelligence is exceeding even the most optimistic predictions. He says AI systems double their ability to handle complex tasks about every seven months, so tasks that once required an hour of work can now be completed in minutes.
In the field of software engineering, estimates that projects that currently require the intervention of entire groups will only require a very small number of skilled workers in a few yearsa transformation that, in his words, will lead to “massive job replacement.”
Some studies report a nearly 30% decline in job vacanciesespecially since the advent of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. This decline is particularly impacting young professionals, a phenomenon already experienced by companies like Amazon, which announced layoffs after adopting AI.
However, these companies also report significant improvements in operational efficiency, highlighting the dual benefit of automation: while it increases productivity, it reduces the need for human capital.
By dealing with the ethical and social implicationsHinton emphasizes that this automation process could increase wealth concentration and increase inequality and poverty.
In a statement to the Financial Times he said: “It will make a few people much richer and the majority poorer.”attributing these effects to the functioning of the capitalist system and the economic incentive associated with the development of disruptive technologies.
During the interview on CNN, and after Hinton was asked about his concerns since leaving his position at Google in 2023 to warn about the risks of AI, Hinton admitted he felt even more uneasy.
“He’s progressed even faster than I thought. In particular, he has become better at things like logical thinking and also at tricking people,” he explained.
He added that when an artificial intelligence system detects that its targets are at risk, It may attempt to deceive people to ensure its own functionality and the achievement of its goals.
Likewise, the expert notes that while certain technology companies make more efforts than others to implement security measures, they all have to balance these criteria with their own economic interests.
To illustrate this logic, he explained: “Driverless cars will kill people, but they will kill far fewer people than regular drivers.” Therefore, captures the ongoing tension between the pragmatic benefits and ethical risks associated with the integration of artificial intelligence into society.
Unlike other optimistic voices in the field, Hinton takes an uncertain stance on whether the overall benefits of AI will outweigh the risks involved.
Recognizes the potential of this technology to advance advances in medicine, education and climate issues, However, warns of the inadequacy of current efforts to mitigate the underlying dangers.
“With these wonderful things come some scary things, and I don’t think people are working hard enough to mitigate those scary things,” he said.
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