Amid the typical year-end exchange rate tensions, the government assures that the Payment of $4.2 billion scheduled for January 9th is already completely covered and There will be no need to issue a bond under foreign law on Wall Street.
According to official sources, the expiry date is met with a Combination of financing sourcesamong which stands out a Repo (buyback agreement) this would soon be over.
Luis Caputo’s plan to address debt maturity in January 2026
The Ministry of Economy said that this short-term loan, secured by public securities, is in its final stages. “Only details are missing“, said the economic team. In the minister’s environment Luis Caputo They also confirmed that the original offer was for $7 billionalthough they estimate that the amount was ultimately collected will not exceed $3,000 million.
“Payment was always guaranteed. Otherwise we would not have a country risk of 570 points“, they explained at the Palacio de Hacienda, pointing to the sign of confidence that they believe the market continues to show despite financial volatility.
The final size of the repo depends on how others Dollar sources with which the Ministry of Finance has to face the maturity of private debts. This scheme includes the Bonar 2029 editionmade weeks ago; The Foreign exchange purchases made by the Ministry of Finance itselfdeposited into your Central Bank (BCRA) account today; and the $700 million related to the Comahue dam concession.
In line with official strategy, Caputo once again distanced himself from an operation in New York. “We will try to ensure that there is no transmission in New York in January. The goal is to eliminate the country’s dependence on Wall Street” he said days ago when responding to a financial player discussing a possible exit to the international market.
Exchanges on social networks continued as questions were asked about why it was considered necessary to reduce this dependency. The minister replied: “Because without a more developed internal capital market, it is very difficult for a country to grow sustainably over time.” And he added: “This is a key point in the medium and long term. This government is trying to go beyond managing the situation to laying the foundations for sustainable growth.”
Caputo also recently clarified that national debt is equivalent 25 points of GDPof that 13 points are awarded in pesos and 12 in dollars. Within this scheme, debt tied directly to Wall Street would currently be around $100,000 between 4 and 5 points of the product. “You always have to pay more“, held.
In this sense, the minister reiterated the need to rebuild the local market: “There is no capital market: 70 years of fighting capital and attacking credit.”. If you fight capital, it goes somewhere else.” In this sense, he emphasized that the labor reform and the creation of the Labor Savings Fund (FAL) could inject $4,000 million per year into the capital market, together with the tax innocence project, so that “Argentinians have credit from Argentinians.”
“Wall Street doesn’t want to borrow him”: Martín Guzmán’s chicanery
The official definitions did not go unanswered. The former economics minister Martin Guzman questioned the government’s discursive turn: “The government always sought to be able to finance itself on Wall Street. The reason the discourse is changing now is probably because Wall Street doesn’t want to lend“he wrote in X.
A recent report from South Americanthe consulting firm led by Guzmán, warned that Argentina was increasingly reliant on funding from international organizations. According to the study, these creditors explained this 23% of external debt in 2018but at The third quarter of 2025 accounted for 58.6% of the total.
Furthermore, the report highlighted that the current country risk lies some 70 points above the level the country was at when it returned to markets in 2016, and 270 points above of the Latin American average (EMBI+ LATAM), which would allow financing at an interest rate close to 7.25% annually.
The consultant goes in the same direction 1816 claimed that the decision not to broadcast in New York “This is less a definition of economic policy than an imposition of reality“Given the high yields that Argentine bonds command today.
According to this report, the Ministry of Finance currently has Foreign currency deposits in the BCRA amounting to US$1,869 millionProduct of Bonar 29 and net foreign exchange purchases. That way there would still be about $2,350 million to cover the term. Even if the $700 million from the Comahue damsthey remained outstanding approximately $1,650 million.
The government made it clear that a resolution will be published in the next few hours Official Gazette This allows for the final administrative step in allocating the dams and thus the effective entry of these dollars into the state treasury.
In parallel, the market closely followed the Treasury’s moves at the end of December. The Economist Gabriel Caamano He stated that they had undergone surgery $900 million in wholesale market (Spot and MEP) in the context of upward pressure on the exchange rate and suggested a possible joint intervention by the Ministry of Finance and the BCRA. However, other analysts interpreted that the Treasury could have been Purchasing foreign currency to pay off debtswhich would have contributed to the dollar’s rise and strong volume.
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