A report published by the UN this Tuesday (9) shows that a green economy that faces climate change can have initial costs, but also bring in up to 20,000 billion dollars per year from 2070; save millions of lives spared by hunger, pollution and extreme events; lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
A low-carbon and sustainable economy is not a question of will. “Urgent actions are no longer optional, they are necessary,” says Edgard Gutierrez-Espeleta, co-chair of the assessment of the new edition of the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-7), the result of the work of 287 scientists from 82 countries.
The document was launched at the 7th United Nations Environment Assembly, which takes place this week in Nairobi, Kenya.
Despite the Paris Agreement and other measures, greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 1.5% per year since 1990, reaching a peak in 2024. The planet has seen record temperatures and extreme weather events in the past two years, such as fires in Europe and floods in Asia.
“The science is clear, the solutions are known. What is needed is the courage to act at the scale and speed that history demands,” says Gutierrez-Espeleta, former Minister of Environment and Energy of Costa Rica.
Over 1,222 pages, GEO-7 lists five “fundamental truths” that must be addressed immediately in the fight against climate change:
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There is an environmental crisis. Climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation and pollution threaten national security, public health, economic stability and social contracts themselves;
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There is a governance crisis. Current politicians aim for short-term gains at the expense of long-term resilience, leaving climate goals aside;
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Financial reform is necessary. It is essential to redirect $1.5 trillion in harmful subsidies and absorb $45 trillion in externalities;
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Governments and societies must provide integrated responses. Policy formulation must bring together businesses, the financial sector, academia, civil society and indigenous knowledge holders, with just, rapid and irreversible transitions;
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Justice and fairness are necessary. “The richest countries must reduce their consumption and mobilize finance and technology; middle-income countries must develop their green infrastructure; low-income countries need support to advance their technologies. » The most vulnerable communities and indigenous peoples must be prioritized.
The task is large, complex and expensive, but, according to GEO-7, the financial question presents an immediate case for change. Over the past two decades, extreme weather events have cost at least $143 billion per year, the report notes. In 2019 alone, the damage caused by air pollution to global public health reached US$8.1 trillion.
The macroeconomic transformation suggested by the study would begin to appear in 2050, when the Paris Agreement provides for emissions neutrality, and would reach $20 trillion per year from 2070.
To this end, the study advocates a revolution in the conduct of international finance, starting with the calculation of GDP. Instead of traditional accounting for goods and services, gross domestic product should aggregate “comprehensive and inclusive wealth measures focused on societal well-being and natural assets,” the report explains.
“It’s complicated to destroy a forest and record that as an increase in GDP,” says Gutierrez-Espeleta. “We need to consider going beyond economics, integrating sustainability as well as vulnerabilities. »
Defended by certain economists, this new GDP is the subject of a proposal from the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, who has set up a panel of experts for this task.
In addition to a more reliable picture of the economy, GEO-7 calls for a reassessment of subsidies, fees and incentives that perpetuate a fossil fuel-based economy and unsustainable land use practices – agriculture, ranching and forestry.
“The world’s population is growing and getting richer. We demand more energy, more food, more materials and, unfortunately, we produce all of this in a way that affects the environment. Our economic, financial and governance systems are clearly unsustainable right now,” says Robert Watson, another leader of the study.
“We need an approach that involves government and society,” says the expert, who has already led the IPCC and IPBES, the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity. “If everything continues like this, we will have a very degraded world in the next 50 years.”
Two change scenarios were tested by GEO-7 scientists. In the first case, the change is essentially behavioral. In the second, the change is technological. “Neither of them simulates the real world, we need both. The conclusion from the modeling is that yes, we can become much more sustainable. It will require behavioral changes, technological changes and innovation, as well as changes in governance. It’s not one or the other, it all goes together.”
Circular economy, decarbonization of the energy matrix, sustainability of mineral chains, including criticism, healthy eating, alternative proteins, several would be the themes of this in-depth and complex dialogue between governments and societies.
Asked by Leaf How to propose such a debate in an era of climate crisis denial and the rise of populist governments, Gutierrez-Espeleta recalled his time as a minister in Costa Rica, when the environment was becoming the backbone of the country’s politics. “The pieces are starting to fall into place.” But not so fast.
“Right now, most governments are trying to respond to people’s demands for cheap food and energy. And, to be honest, if we get the prices right by eliminating or redirecting subsidies, internalizing externalities, the price of energy and food will actually go up,” Watson asks.
“If we continue with our unsustainable practices, the future will be bleak. Governments must work with civil society and explain why we need certain decisions.”
“Unfortunately, humanity sometimes only begins to act when it thinks it is drowning,” says Gutierrez-Espeleta. “We don’t want that to happen, even if the water is almost up to our noses.”
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