Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia intensified on Tuesday, with new artillery, drone and aerial bombardment attacks forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people from both countries. At least seven Cambodian civilians and three Thai soldiers have been killed in clashes since Monday and around 200,000 people are in evacuation centers. Bangkok and Phnom Penh accuse each other of having triggered the attacks and assure that they will not give up in the defense of their sovereignty.
This escalation, the most significant since July, calls into question the fragile ceasefire that US President Donald Trump helped negotiate. The Republican called on both parties to “fully fulfill their obligations to end this conflict,” according to a senior American official quoted anonymously by Reuters.
What was the trigger?
The current clashes began early Monday, when new clashes broke out at several points along the disputed border. As has happened repeatedly, each country has given a different version of events: Thailand claims its troops were attacked with artillery, rocket launchers and drones equipped with explosives, to which it responded with an air attack on Cambodian military installations. Cambodia, on the other hand, accuses its neighbor of having started the hostilities and claims to have respected the ceasefire for 24 hours to allow the evacuation of civilians. Hostilities have now spread to six provinces in northeastern Thailand and five provinces in northern and northwest Cambodia.
This new spiral of violence comes after five days of clashes in July which left at least 48 dead and 300,000 displaced. Both sides later agreed to suspend operations following growing international pressure. Although this truce was negotiated by Malaysia (which holds the rotating presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN), it came about under pressure from the American president, who threatened to withdraw certain trade privileges if they did not reach an agreement. The White House therefore publicly presented the truce as a diplomatic success for Trump.
What is the origin of the conflict?
The 817-kilometer border separating Thailand and Cambodia has been the scene of intermittent tensions for decades. The dispute has its roots in the colonial era and dates back to a 1907 map (drawn when Cambodia was under French rule) that Bangkok and Phnom Penh interpret differently. This ambiguity mainly affects the enclaves where Hindu temples stand from the 9th to the 12th century, vestiges of the ancient Khmer empire. Both countries claim these sanctuaries as part of their national heritage for their historical and symbolic value, which makes each dispute a question of identity pride.
Tensions have been fueled since 2008, when Phnom Penh attempted to list the Preah Vihear temple as a world heritage site. Although the International Court of Justice determined in 1962 that it was located in Cambodian territory, Thailand refuses to recognize the Court’s jurisdiction in the matter. Since then, armed clashes have been sporadic but recurring and tend to resurface when the two countries are particularly fragile politically or economically.
The current confrontation follows this pattern: in Thailand, the new government of Anutin Charnvirakul has a parliamentary minority and is very worn out by criticism of its management of the devastating floods which recently devastated the south of the country. In Cambodia, international pressure is increasing in the face of the proliferation of online fraud centers on its territory, a phenomenon which has eroded its image and added new vulnerabilities to the Hun political clan.
Why is the truce not respected?
Trump presented the truce agreed in July between the two Southeast Asian countries as a personal triumph, even though the ceasefire was also brokered by other countries, such as Malaysia and China.
This cessation of hostilities was attempted on October 26 with the signing of the Kuala Lumpur peace agreement, within the framework of the ASEAN summit, in which Trump participated. That day, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and his Cambodian counterpart Hun Manet signed a more comprehensive document than that of July, which, in addition to ratifying the truce, also provided for the withdrawal of heavy artillery and armored vehicles from disputed areas, cooperation in mine clearance tasks from the territory and the deployment of international observers.
But that framework began to crack on November 10, when a mine exploded and seriously injured a Thai soldier. Bangkok accused Phnom Penh of planting new explosives and announced it was suspending implementation of the peace deal and de-escalation measures agreed in October. Cambodia denied the accusations, attributed the explosion to ancient objects and assured that it remained committed to the pact.
The Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based analysis center, warned in an August report that the ceasefire negotiated this summer was very fragile because it did not address the roots of the conflict (border demarcation, sovereignty, nationalist rivalries), but only tried to contain the violence.
What are the two governments defending?
Thailand says that in recent weeks, Cambodia has again placed heavy weapons on the border and moved combat units in a bid to step up its military operations. The Thai Air Force noted that these actions forced it to use its air power “to deter” and “reduce” Cambodian capabilities. The Thai Air Force confirmed it carried out bombing raids against Cambodian military targets on Monday and Tuesday. Bangkok says Phnom Penh is not ready to broker peace through diplomacy.
Cambodia, on the other hand, presents the escalation as a consequence of “illegal” Thai aggression. He says Bangkok has bombed villages and killed civilians, and sees its own actions as self-defense against a militarily more powerful neighbor. According to Phnom Penh, any advance by its troops is an obligatory response to stop incursions and preserve its territorial integrity.
What is the human and military cost?
Cambodia’s Defense Ministry says Thailand has killed seven civilians and seriously injured 20 people since Monday. For its part, Thailand says three Thai soldiers were killed in combat and 29 people were injured.
The Thai military reported that around 125,000 people are housed in temporary shelters in four provinces, while Cambodian authorities estimate that 55,000 people have been evacuated from villages along the border.
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