The Argentine economy shows increasingly clear signs that the most difficult phase is over. recessive the stabilization process and entry into a cyclical recovery phase.
Unlike previous episodes, which were characterized by recoveries without a consistent macro environment, the current cycle is driven by a profound recomposition of the main environment nominal variables: inflationInterest rate and country risk.
The first relevant break is observed in the inflation curve. After a phase of strong nominal acceleration, the monthly inflation entered a path of persistent slowdown.
This process is not just statistical: it is redefining itself Expectations and restores the function of the Prices as a resource allocation mechanism.
The lower nominal value has a direct impact on the company’s financial planning Companies and housesreduces the inflation premium contained in contracts and frees up suppressed decisions Investment and consumption.
The nominal orderOn the other hand, it was just an initial phase Contraction of activity levels. The macro strategy subordinated the short-term expansion to the correction structural imbalances.
From a technical point of view, the program was based on a scheme of Textbook stabilization: price discovery, aggressive fiscal consolidation and contractionary monetary policy in the first sections.
Therefore, the gradualist approach was discarded in favor of a financial shock resulting in a temporary decrease in activity levels.
The key question is that this phase is already showing clear signs of this exhaustion. The leading indicators of consumption, Credit spreads And Trust You start to become positive.
In particular the development of Real exchange rates in pesos is central.
As inflation falls and expectations recalibrate, implied returns begin to decline steadily, reflecting greater demand for local currency assets and a recovery in the exchange rate Credibility bias of the monetary regime.
In this context the Credit channel gradually begins to normalize. Sectors that were previously excluded from financing will regain access to the system, both through productive loans as consumption.
This point is crucial: no economic expansion without financial mediation. Argentina has spent more than a decade with one Undersized financial systemunable to convert savings into investments.
At the same time, another important financial vector is consolidating: the strong compression of the sovereign spread.
He Country risk shows a significant correction since the beginning of the year, reflecting a decline in the implied probability standard and a reordering of expectations financial sustainability long term.
This dynamic not only enhances that Government bondsbut it directly impacts the real economy by reducing the Financing costs of the entire system.
An economy perceived as less risky operates at a lower discount rate.
Under this new regime of financial stress investment that have not yet exceeded the “break-even point” are now beginning to become feasible.
This is particularly relevant in industries capital intensive such as energy, mining and infrastructure, are very sensitive to Yield curve.
In it Equity capitalthe movement did not wait. After several years of underperformance compared to other emerging markets, the local variable income initiates a reassessment process supported by a macroeconomic and political regime change.
The flows They begin to reposition themselves in light of the hypothesis that the current order is not temporary structurallywhich changes it significantly relative valuation Argentine assets.
In the Real economyHe consumption begins to gain momentum. Indicators linked to Retail, tourism and services show sequential improvement, underpinned by the gradual recovery of the real salary.
Disinflation is beginning to offset itself again Real income Now relax Budget constraintsReactivation of the Domestic demandespecially in the layers most affected during the contraction phase.
At the same time, a complementary phenomenon is emerging: a return still at the beginning, but growing Human capital from the outside.
Without it being a massive inflow, an increase Relocations associated with employment opportunities and productive projects.
In finance the return of Human capital As a rule, longer expansion stages are planned.
With focus on 2026-2027the base scenario combines a nominally ordered macro with a Output gap still significant. This statistical gap allows high real growth rates over several quarters, even in neutral outside weather.
The necessary condition is clear: preserve Budget consistencyavoid monetary dominance and deepen regulatory standardization.
At the political-financial level it is no less important than the process stabilization has gone through its most expensive phase Election support. Argentine economic history shows that Consolidation They fail when they lose their social legitimacy.
Have survived the contraction phase without institutional disruption represents one of the main risks from a systemic risk perspective Assets of the current program.
The challenge is no longer to avoid a queue event but Consolidate trajectory.
Argentina now faces a structural test: the transformation of a successful stabilization In sustainable growth financed by investments and not by imbalances.
The macro It ceased to be the central threat; must be done now anchor. If discipline is maintained, the current cycle could become the first comprehensive process macrofinancial normalization in more than a decade.
The economy begins to develop permanent crisis regime. He rebound It stops being a stage and starts becoming data, a phenomenon that markets are already beginning to discount.
Be welcome, Argentina will be prosperous again.
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