Some economists are beginning to make their predictions about… Economic inflation Registered in Last Novemberwith a higher record compared to previous months, and they also risk their estimates on what Consumer Price Index (CPI) Expected for now DecemberA slight decline is expected, in a scenario where the dollar price remains stable.
Specifically, various economic consultancies take this into account the The inflation rate last November ranged between 2.3% to 2.5%.so it will be placed higher than the official INDEC record for the previous month, October, which was 2.3%.
For the month of December, the forecasts of the experts he consulted iProfessional They are a little lower.
For example, in consulting Echo Godirected by Sebastian Meniscaldi and Marina dal Pogettoconsider it in November Inflation reached 2.5% At the general level, the cumulative figure for the entire year 2025 is 28.9%.
For its part, consulting QuantityIts chief economist, Fernando BayerIt is estimated that Last month there was an increase of 2.5%. In the consumer price index.
Added to this Fundación Libertad y Progreso, which amounted to 2.3% for November.
Likewise, in a survey conducted by a retail price consulting firm C&Tl Camillo Tiscornia and Maria Castiglione Cotterfor the greater Buenos Aires area had Monthly increase 2.4%“In conjunction with the value announced by the INDIC index for the region in October.”
According to C&T analysts, price dynamics last month were particularly affected by three factors: the price of beef, Cyber Monday, and regulated services..
“the The beef was already accelerating Since October and November, this has increased further, giving a big boost to food items consumed at home (with the heaviest weight), which increased by 2.6% during the month, above average. The increase in the item was not greater due to the decrease in the prices of vegetables, which constitute a seasonal component, by 12%; In other components there was also some moderation compared to October,” they say from C&T.
For their part, they pointed out that Cyber Monday led to ‘price reductions on many items’ During the first week of the month, “but it had a special impact on the home’s equipment, which includes various appliances.”
Meanwhile, from Eco Go, they break it down “the The core inflation rate was 2% per monthRecording an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. The measurement, which excludes regulated and seasonal elements, thus amounts to an annual increase of 30.7%.
To add that Commodity price variation reaches 28.9% year-on-year While in the services sector it reached 37.6%.
As they point out, In November prices Regulated cities registered a 2.1% increase and pushed the index higher, driven by increases in prices for electricity and gas (3.6% and 3.8%, respectively), prepayment (2.4% on average), buses in Buenos Aires Province, CABA (4.1%), Nacion (9.7%), and fuel (6%).among other things.
“the Seasonal prices recorded an increase of 5.4% during the monthWhich also contributed to the rise in the general index. Fruits showed an increase of 18.7%, while vegetables recorded a decrease of 1.4%. Considering holidays, tourist transportation was also added with an increase of 6%,” summary from Eco Go.
Expected inflation for December
now, As for December, the estimates are slightly lower Compared to November, where the highest expected numbers were 23%as it is Echo Go.
Meanwhile, since then Quantity It is expected 1.9% for this month.
“Even though it’s still December We expect a monthly inflation level above 2%.It is believed that from 2026, the process of deceleration of inflation will return, and that even by the end of the year it may already reach less than 1% per month. Ivan KachanowskiChief Economist at the Foundation for Freedom and Progress.
He points this out Clara AlesinaAn economic expert from the same entity: “forward, December usually represents an ambiguous seasonality: on the one hand, the greater demand for pesos associated with holidays, vacations and bonus payments tends to contain inflation by increasing the preference for liquidity. On the other hand, seasonal increases in consumption put upward pressure on sensitive items. In addition, December also tends to be a month of increased demand for the dollar, which may generate additional pressure on the exchange rate. And with it the prices.”
However, he confirms that Slight increase in wholesale prices in OctoberEspecially the import price component, which recorded a decrease of 1.4%, “It would help alleviate the severity Traffic linked “The exchange rate jumped in the previous months, with estimates being adjusted downward for the coming months.”
Economists’ consensus on inflation for the whole of 2026 is 23.9%.
Inflation for 2026
Likewise, this week the consulting firm’s global report was published Focus on economicswhich details new forecasts from about 40 economists from national and foreign banks and consulting firms expected for Inflation by the end of next year.
the Analysts surveyed expect a Average increase of 23.9% in consumer prices in 2026This represents a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to what was expected in the previous month.
Of all the experts consulted, the minimum stipulated for inflation for the entire next year is 16.4% annually, by the International Monetary Fund); While waiting for the counselor High inflation For Argentina, it is Standard Charteredputs it in 38% by 2026.
In this way, economists confirm it Inflationary pressures are expected to decline further in the coming quarters, thanks to continued fiscal restraint, improved market competition, and easing restrictions on imports.