He official dollar will serve on the board of Banco Nación this Friday, December 26th at $1,475. In the wholesale segment, the currency is trading at $1,450. As for financial dollars, cash with settlement is selling for $1,272 (+0.1%) and the MEP is at $1,481 (+0.2%). Finally, in the informal segment, blue is trading at $1,505.
The exchange rate policy came into play new level of definitionwhere the focus is no longer just on the daily price of the dollar, but on the actual ability of the central bank to accumulate reserves without confusing the rest of the macroeconomic variables. The latest official announcement redefined the operational framework of the exchange rate, introduced changes in the updating of bands and made explicit a foreign exchange purchasing program that will come into force in January. The initial reaction was mixed: Improvement in financial assets, relief on bonds and continued caution on the dollar.
The market interpreted the move as a sign in the right direction, although that was still the case not final. The measures are aimed at solving one of the structural problems of the economy: the fragility of the Central Bank’s balance sheet and the shortage of its own reserves. However, the context in which the program is launched is demanding. With monetization at historically low levels and an economy looking to consolidate recovery, this is the key Match the demand for money to the supply of pesos and the flow of dollars.
In this delicate balance emerges a fact that attracts the city’s attention: the behavior of private sector dollar savings. Beyond the technical design of the program, the program’s success will depend on how strongly households and businesses choose to dollarize in the coming months. January turns out to be a sensitive monthnot just because of the formal start of the plan, but because it is usually a time when demand for dollars regains momentum.
The bands are tied to inflation and a shift in exchange rate logic
Out of Invecq They pointed out that the official announcement implied a Recalibration of the exchange rate systemmore than a radical change. Starting in January, the variable bands will be adjusted monthly based on observed inflation with a lag of two months. This changes the role of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and gives the regime more flexibility.
The consulting firm’s experts explained that under this new criterion, the band cap will move a little faster than in the previous scheme, but without a discrete jump. The adjustment forecast for January appears to be limited, but it sends a relevant signal: The dollar is no longer a strictly predetermined variable and is beginning to coexist more directly with inflation dynamics..
For Invecq, the change aims to avoid excessive appreciation of the real exchange rate, a problem that has begun to worry the market in recent months. However, they warned that the movement alone is not sufficient to clear all doubts. They claim attention is now shifting to the consistency between this scheme and the ability to generate real dollars.
In this sense, the recalibration of the bands appears as necessary but not sufficient conditionto stabilize the exchange front. The market appreciates the correction but demands additional signals confirming that the regime can be maintained for a longer period of time without resorting to shortcuts.
Reservation purchases: the heart of the new program
Out of IEB Group They explained that the central axis of advertising is the Reserve purchase programwhich will begin operations from January 2026. The explicit aim is to strengthen the central bank’s balance sheet by purchasing foreign currencies on the market, without sterilization and within a framework that corresponds to the demand for money.
The broker’s specialists explained in detail what is provided for in the plan limited daily purchasesaimed at a portion of the volume traded on the exchange market, with the ability to carry out larger trades when conditions permit. The logic is to avoid disruptive effects on the exchange rate and to prioritize gradual and predictable accumulation.
In the baseline scenario, the program assumes a moderate expansion of the monetary base from a level close to 4.2% of GDP to a range close to 4.8%. Under the premise, this expansion would be directly linked to the purchase of reserves Greater demand for money allows for greater accumulation of dollars.
On behalf of IEB, they emphasized that the market received this approach positively because it introduced an explicit regulation where discretion had previously prevailed. However, they also stressed that the success of the program will depend on effectively supporting demand for pesos and ensuring that the dollar flow is not interrupted by confidence shocks.
Money demand, inflation and the margin for the dollar
Out of IEB Group pointed out that the current monetary context provides one Window of opportunity promote the accumulation of reserves without putting pressure on inflation. The level of monetization of the economy remains low by historical standards, which opens up space for a controlled expansion of the money supply.
The broker’s experts emphasized that with the return of economic activity to a growth path, the demand for money should accompany this process. In this scenario, the central bank could expand its balance sheet without creating imbalances and use greater demand for pesos as an anchor for dollar purchases.
They therefore do not expect the recent inflation recovery to consolidate. They assume that there is no structural surplus of pesos and that monetary policy is under control. Therefore, even if the bands change their adjustment mechanism, they will not see automatic inflationary pressures arising from the new system.
However, IEB warned that the exchange rate would remain a sensitive variable. The market responded with an initial rise in the dollar following the announcement, a sign that confidence is not yet fully established and that any deviation in the implementation of the program could quickly be reflected in prices.
The factor of concern to the city: savings in dollars and funding
For InvecqThe biggest question lies not in the technical design of the program, but in the behavior of the private sector. The focus of the consultation was on Hoarding of dollars by individualsa variable that historically determined exchange rate stability.
Analysts warned that external financing needs could reach very demanding levels if dollar savings remained at high levels. In this scenario, the reserve purchase program would quickly become strained and would rely on a constant inflow of financial capital.
From Invecq they explained that the program will continue depending on the financial account. This means that the stability of the dollar depends not only on monetary policy, but also on the evolution of country risk, access to credit and the willingness of investors to finance the Argentine economy.
The contrast with past experiences appears as a reference. During times of greater confidence, the economy managed to finance large balance of payments deficits. However, today the market is more selective and needs clear signals of macroeconomic consistency before it can validate large flows.
January, reserves and the next dollar test
Out of IEB Group They pointed out that when analyzing the money market and the balance of payments, there are no conclusive arguments for expecting a short-term increase in the dollar. The supply of pesos appears to be limited and demand is showing signs of stabilizing, reducing the risk of a sudden move.
However, they recognized that January will be a key month. The effective launch of the purchasing program, the seasonality of dollar demand and the private sector response will test the credibility of the new program. The market will be watching closely to see if reserves begin to grow steadily.
For Invecq, the challenge is twofold: Collect dollars and maintain trust. If the program manages to start showing results and country risk continues to decline, the exchange rate could find a more orderly path within the bands. On the other hand, if private dollarization accelerates and financing fails to accompany it, the pressures will reoccur.
Therefore, the data that worries the market today is not a specific price, but a behavior: How many dollars will the private sector want to save when the new system starts working?. This response will depend largely on whether the dollar emerges from 2026 with greater stability or whether it becomes the focus of macroeconomic tensions again.
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