Tuesday’s round was the most similar to the first study rounds in boxing. Investors face a conundrum: When will the availability of funds for payment be announced? $4.2 billion which expires in JanuaryOf these, US$500 million represents bonds in the hands of the state, more specifically to the Anses Sustainability Guarantee Fund.
he The market chose to move towards sovereign bondsWhich the previous day had suffered a slight setback and this time saw increases of up to 0.9%, as was the case with Global 2035, which has a New York law.
The Romano group warned that “Argentine debt is trading with a significantly (gap) regulation spread – excessive in our opinion. The short portion under New York law yields about 8.6%, while bonds under Argentine law have a weighted average rate of return of 11.4%. Argentina is about 130 basis points away from the risks of Ecuador, for example. “The market is eagerly awaiting news regarding the return to international markets.”
In these circumstances, Country risk fell by only one unit to 647 basis points. This decline may be greater when they announce a repo with international banks, but the improvement has limits because a few days after the January payment, bondholders will start thinking about the US$1.1 billion Boreal bonds maturing in May and the US$4.5 billion sovereign bonds maturing in July. The only way to dispel doubts is for the index prepared by JP Morgan to decline and allow dollars to be taken by issuing new securities to renew maturities without relying on repurchase agreements or international organizations.
the The hope for January dollars is clear This makes Investors continue to bet on the peso. In fact, the European exchange rate remained stable at $1,477. Only cash with settlement (CCL) rose, rising $23 to $1,519.74. The “blue” color remained at $1,445. On the MLC, only US$394 million changed hands and the wholesale dollar rose by 3.50 pesos (+0.24%) to US$1,455.
The report issued by the consulting firm F2, run by Andres Reschini, noted that “The Treasury failed to maintain three wheels of increase in its deposits In foreign currency, the BCRA lost $27 million on Friday, the latest data available. Trading volume in A3 dollar futures rebounded from the previous 720,000 contracts to 1,522,186. The adjustments were negative in contrast to the wholesaler due to the downward pressure exerted by the peso curve yields.
LECAP and BONCAP with a fixed rate in pesos have continued to rise and the yield now ranges between 2% per month and 2.28%. BONCER bonds, which expire at the end of November, rose 0.40%.
In parallel, The stock market saw a slight decline. The leading S&P Merval index lost 0.6% in pesos and 2.1% in dollars. There were no big highs or big lows. It looked like a round of hesitant people.
On the other hand, banks and investment funds are preparing for the larger influx that will come from the bonus. “In the context of a larger macroeconomic system, the portfolios are designed according to the assumption of a guaranteed exchange rate, with no expectations that it will exceed the ceiling of the exchange rate band in the short term,” Adcap Financial Group noted.
“In this scenario, peso-denominated bonds look better for the coming months, as we expect a pullback Gradual normalization of the money and exchange marketAlong with greater predictability and reduced volatility because reward portfolios, by their nature, are designed to enhance returns over the medium and long term, the report added.
Meanwhile, Abroad, the climate has improved after the crisis that unleashed Japan’s debt. New York stock exchanges traded at increases of up to 0.6%, and awaited employment data from the United States, which will be published in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Labor statistics may support the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates at its meeting next Wednesday.
Last night in After the marketNew York stock indexes did not determine the direction. Gold rose 0.45% and Bitcoin rebounded from the recent decline and was trading at $91,000.
In short, Argentina is sensitive to the feelings of foreign investors, but the tension is focused on the upcoming statements of the Minister of Economy, Louis Caputoaround Get money to pay January dues.