The Bonds and stocks they had a slightly negative wheel waiting for the tender first dollar bond issue in the last 8 years. Of course, there were encouraging measures in the run-up to the auction, such as a two percentage point reduction in retentions for the agricultural export sector.
The measure was timely as the government seeks to push forward currency settlements, although the economist Gabriel Caamano In one post, he noted that it was “a shame they didn’t announce it a few weeks in advance so that it had a chance to influence the decision to plant second grade soybeans.”
As for oilseeds, there was one bad bike in Chicago where it lost $6 per ton and broke through the USD 400 mark and closed at USD 399.50.
The Rosario Stock Exchange stated that “the first round of this week began with the early announcement of the reduction in export tariffs by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo. In the absence of publication in the official bulletin, the level of open offers, mainly for soybeans, was somewhat reserved, however, we experienced an intense day, especially in the purchase offers for wheat, where purchase offers were seen for the available and contracted segment, with significant price improvements for certain offers. For soybeans, the purchase offers “They were not plentiful and it arrived towards the end of the day with price improvements.” The measure means a Reimbursement of $600 million in agricultural taxes.
The Center for Brokers and Agents of the Grain Exchange emphasized that the announcement is “a step in the right direction; however, we understand that.” The ultimate goal must be the complete and permanent abolition of export tariffsa distortive tax that penalizes production aimed at external markets and weakens Argentina’s position compared to other major food producers, where sales abroad are encouraged and not burdened with taxes of this type.
This cut and the announcement of a future labor law that provides for lower costs for idle employment are shaping the market, which does not react because everything is a horizon. There are no immediate triggers other than today’s call for proposals new Bonar 2029N, which is expected to cover $1 billion at a rate of approximately 9%. The amount is not large, but achieving it would be an excellent sign.
In fact, some investors made significant stock purchases just before the close, mitigating the decline in the S&P Merval of leading stocks. After a decline of almost 2.5% It closed at -1.9% in pesos and -2% in dollars. There was not a single increase in securities and the most significant declines were recorded by Telecom with 4.5% and Banco Supervielle with 4.4%.
There were slight declines in dollar bonds, which only increased the country risk by 3 units to 634 basis points. The declines of up to 0.3% were due to the rise in the US Treasury yield to 4.19%, which impacted bond prices in the region. In fact, the emerging market index fell 0.2%.
The financial dollar recorded a decline of 0.4%, bringing the MEP to $1,468.72 and Cash with Settlement (CCL) to $1,508.06. The “Blue” rose 0.7% to $1,445.
Accordingly Juan Martin YanzonHead of the monetary department of ConoSur, “after October 26 without a short-term catalyst, we will have to wait and see what happens with the dollar bond, honestly nothing is happening in the market. The announcement of the tender made the rounds but everything is very calm and we are not used to that after the volatility we have been in.” We no longer have high interest rates or other elements that move the market. When interest rates are stable, the stock market is calm.”
On the Free Exchange Market (MLC), $379 million was traded and the wholesale dollar rose $7 to $1,442. The report by the consulting firm F2, led by Andrés Reschini, states: “In the futures area, the volume fell to just over 607 thousand contracts without business registration in the 5 longest positions of the curve. There was $65.4 million in net disarmament amid weak demand, resulting in lower implied interest rates.”
LECAP and BONCAP recorded a decline of up to 0.43% and their returns effectively increased to 2.06% to 2.30% monthly.
The other relevant information for tomorrow is this Tendering of government bonds seeking to extend maturities worth $40 billion. The Treasury is at the mercy of the market, having only deposited $3 billion with the central bank. From the $40 billion, we must deduct $27 billion that is in the hands of government agencies.
The menu consists of these fixed-interest bonds:
- LECAP will be released on April 17th.
- LECAP will be released on May 29th.
- LECAP expiring November 30th.
- BONCAP due on May 31, 2027. It is a new bond that is part of the bi-weekly fixed rate bidding program.
There is also a variable interest rate title: TAMAR interest rate note due on August 31st.
With higher inflation expected this month, they hope to attract investors with securities that align with CER. This is the list of bonds with different maturities:
- LECER with a discount until May 29th.
- LECER with a discount until November 30th.
- BONCER zero coupon due May 31, 2027 (new).
- BONCER’s zero coupon expires on June 30, 2028.
Finally, a title is announced dollars linked (adjusted for the development of the dollar):
- D30A6 Zero coupon due April 30th.
While waiting for the dollar bond tender, a Capital Foundation report suggests that “the north should be macroeconomic policy.” Lifting of foreign exchange restrictions with creation of reservesAccess to local and international voluntary financing, maintaining the fiscal health achieved and providing long-term predictability, achieving the integrity of the four vectors of the economy.”
“In the short term it can generate one Shock of positive expectations “If at the same time (December/January) the adoption of a balanced budget with a forward control is achieved, combined with reforms (e.g. tax or labor reforms in preparation), a financial and monetary program with clear targets for 2026 must be added. In financial matters, it is necessary to ensure that banks finance the private sector again and to clarify the use of short-term bridges (bank loans and swaps with the US Treasury),” the report says. the advisor.
The Forecasts suggest the new bond will have a price of $89.50 and an interest rate of around 9% per year. For some it may trigger a turnaround in the stock market and bonds, for others the market will follow the laborious rhythm of the last wheels. On the other hand, today it is highly anticipated and almost certain that the United States will lower its interest rate, which will work in favor of Argentine bonds and the tender for the new security.
Nor should we ignore the positive impact of the approval of the environmental impact statement that promotes the Mendoza copper extraction project.
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