Analysts consulted by the Central Bank have revised upwards their expectations regarding the base interest rate in 2026, in a context of a new wave of decline in inflation projections, shows the Focus survey published this Monday.
The survey, which captures market perception of economic indicators, showed that the projection for Selic at the end of next year increased to 12.25%, from 12.13% previously in the median of projections. The survey continues to show that interest rates are expected to be held at the first meeting of the year at 15%.
According to BC President Gabriel Galípolo, the authority remains dependent on data, saying that “there are no closed doors” or “given arrows” for monetary policy decisions.
For the sixth consecutive week, experts reduced the calculations for the IPCA’s increase in 2025, this time by 0.03 percentage points, to 4.33%. For next year, inflation is now calculated at 4.06%, up from 4.10% previously, while for 2027 and 2028, the estimates remain at 3.80% and 3.50%, respectively.
The center of the official continuing inflation target is 3.00%, again with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points plus or minus. The IBGE publishes IPCA-15 data for December on Tuesday.
For Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the weekly survey conducted among around a hundred economists revealed a growth forecast of 2.26% in 2025, up 0.01 percentage point, and 1.80% in 2026, unchanged.
Last week, BC forecast stronger-than-expected economic activity for this year, at 2.3%, and next year, also highlighting that inflation is only expected to reach the center of the 3% target in the first quarter of 2028, remaining above the target through the decisive 2027 period.
About The Author
