The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its estimates of Brazil’s gross domestic product in 2025, but warned of a loss of momentum in the national economy this year, and maintained its observations on persistent inflation threats and the need to tighten fiscal policy.
In a report released Tuesday (2/12), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated a growth rate of 2.4% of Brazilian GDP in 2025. For 2026, the organization expects the country’s economy to grow at a lower rate, 1.7%.
The new forecasts are higher than those issued in the previous report, which are 2.1% and 1.6%, respectively.
According to the OECD, Brazil’s GDP performance is directly linked to the strong agricultural harvest, which is expected to grow by 17%, as well as increasing household consumption, at a time when labor market prices are rising – and with unemployment at a historic low.
Slow down
Despite the optimism about Brazil’s economy in 2025, the OECD warns of a slowdown process that has already been observed in recent months. The country’s activity index has fallen by 1.8% since April, and retail sales and industrial production fell again in September.
According to the OECD, investment in the country is expected to decline next year, under the influence of the still very high base interest rate (currently at 15% per annum), as well as global uncertainty and trade tariffs in the United States.
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Elastic inflation
Another focus of concern to the OECD regarding Brazil is the resilience of inflation, which remains above target. According to the agency, the national broad consumer price index (IPCA) is expected to end the year at 5.1%. In 2026, it will be 4.2%.
Tax issue
In its report, the OECD also draws attention to Brazil’s delicate fiscal situation, with a “large” deficit and high total debt (today it stands at 77% of GDP). According to the entity, this percentage is expected to reach 80% in 2026 and 82% of GDP in 2027.
US
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also updated its forecasts for the performance of the US economy, the largest in the world. According to the agency, the country is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, which is slightly higher than previous estimates (1.6% and 1.5%, respectively).
According to the OECD, a slowdown in North American GDP next year should reflect the potential loss of strength in the labor market, as well as the impact of increased tariffs on domestic prices.
Regarding inflation, the OECD expects that the PCE (consumption inflation) index will end 2025 at 3%, compared to the previous estimate of 3.2%. As for 2026, the forecast is 2.3%, compared to 2.8% in the last report.