“Milei is like the beavers in Tierra del Fuego. He expands because he has no natural enemy. He is the picture of anger and change no matter what he says, even if they are atrocities. He kicks the board and adds out of anger, and no one will agree with some of the things he says because we just don’t agree or because they are not viable, but he has managed to make them believable.”
Almost resignedly, a Pro leader said this about Javier Milei in the 2023 presidential campaign. At that time, the Libertarian candidate and Patricia Bullrich faced off, and there was nothing to indicate that two years later the Pro would bleed to death in the hands of Milei, with Bullrich himself at the helm and dragging with him a large number of yellow leaders and militants. Of course, the scenario changed and, as always, “orders of power” happened, because with resources and greater chances to guarantee political success, she not only manages to impose her will, but she designs the scenario, sets the rules, classifies and disciplines reality at will, which only serves her interests. In this regard, politics has not changed, no matter how many outsiders without predators came to power.
The political system knew how to withstand all social and economic crises, and there were several, and even today it is experiencing a very deep crisis, that is, the indirect representation of the people has never been broken, 42 years after the restoration of democracy. Although there is now a part of society that is reluctant to vote – this needs to get going again – the majority continue to do so, despite frustrations with politicians and traditional parties. In the 2023 elections he found his way out by choosing a political outsider, a media economist, confrontational, sometimes quite rude, but who, as Carlos Pagni said, managed to make people feel “He didn’t express his anger, but he was just as angry as she was.”“The outsider of politics was one of them, and he earned a place in the media many times with incredible statements, such as advocating the sale of organs or insulting politicians in a way unknown in the debate of Argentines. People made him compare the state to the worst of all evils, using unpleasant metaphors. Although he became president, few could realize the extent of social anger over politics and, in particular, against Kirchnerism, and on March 26, October he achieved a… With a resounding victory in the midterm elections and the addition of allies from other parties, Milei faces the election in the second part of his term for controversial, tough reforms that are insensitive to many but that the president and his people believe are very necessary.
The ruling party already has its outsider leader, it doesn’t need another one, just to add more loyalists outside politics, as Menem already did in the 90s with Palito Ortega, Carlos Reutemann, Daniel Scioli and even the remembered Soldado Chamamé, who donned the suit of candidates to accompany Menem. Of course, there was the umbrella of Peronism back then, which gave them a different identity, or so they believed. Today, those who join the libertarian project know that it’s all about raising your hand and affirming everything the leader says. So he filled his list of legislators with candidates from the entertainment or business world, even with criminal pasts, such as Río Negro Senator-elect Lorena Villaverde, who was unable to take office because the panel vetoed her on a matter related to drug trafficking in the United States. The majority, with the exception of those who come from Peronism, do not know political militancy – this is a value for libertarians – and are ready to be loyal without thinking about it. “Milei thinks for us” is how they often justify their orientation. This is what “non-politics” is like, it has these rules of the game. The pro-allies who have joined their ranks and left the party that brought them to Congress seem comfortable in this place, something that was unthinkable not long ago. But Milei accomplished all of that, including getting the President of the United States involved in local politics like never before.
Now it is the turn of the opposition to move in a scenario that is unfavorable to it, since its main references are politicians with long-standing activism, in whom it believes and which it values. The problem is that they have the difficult task of convincing society or the majority that again not just to believe in politics, but also in the politicians, to believe in them. Even when you defend ideas with commitment, they have a hard time making sense. In many corners of the opposition, people are beginning to think about whether the outsider in 2027 will not have to be confronted with another who has different characteristics in terms of political and social values, but who are similar in their non-affiliation with the traditional political apparatus. There are examples around the world that this is a sign of the times, but in general these experiments with far-right candidates tend to be electorally successful. To name just a few: Jair Bolsonaro, Nayib Bukele, Volodimir Zelenski or Donald Trump himself. All of them were characterized by authoritarian traits. Bolsonaro is imprisoned in Brazil and convicted of disrupting the institutional order, Bukele suppressed the rule of law in order to carry out a successful security policy but violated human rights, Zelenskyy oppressed Parliament upon taking office and called elections to achieve a majority (institutional coup), and even Trump himself was in a federal criminal case for his alleged involvement in the effort to annul the 2020 elections and the attack on the Capitol on January 6th Indicted in 2021.
It is more difficult for the center to convince the electorate. Authoritarian speech is more concrete, more direct, it doesn’t require as much explanation, or at least its electorate doesn’t demand it. The problem for the Republican opposition is complex, firstly because its members do not agree with each other and certainly not – which is logical – with Kirchnerism, since they have lived in conflict for years. Since Milei took office, the situation has changed so much that many opponents have been able to agree on a future program, but they are being condemned based on their previous statements and attitudes. Then there is tentative talk of putting together teams and programs to support an external political candidate on the path to the presidency.
The announcement of a candidacy by Esteban Bullrich, a man afflicted by a cruel illness but with an admirable vocation to action and determination, made many think that this is exactly how the path goes. “It is an example of resilience, kindness and inspiration, it can be a symbol of unity”they say near him.
“Even if I lose, I can unite Argentines,” said Esteban Bullrich, a promising message for a certain area of politics. In a sector of Peronism they think of the Protestant pastor Dante Gebel. In fact, Juan Pablo Brey, chairman of the Argentine Aircraft Association (AAA), leader of the CGT and recognized Peronist sympathizer, is already openly active in the “Gebel Presidente” project and indicated that several union leaders and politicians would view his candidacy positively. “He practices Peronism without saying it,” he said. Weeks ago, Mario Pergolini asked Gebel about this possibility on his television show, and the priest did not avoid the answer: “You have to stand up and do something, not stand by and criticize… I don’t rule it out,” he said, inspiring several people. Gebel fills stadiums, is popular and doesn’t come from politics. That alone is a good start. Although it has many weak points, such as: B. a low commitment to free thinking, individual freedoms – such as. B. individual sexual choice – and inspiration for a cult around his personality, something characteristic of many pastors of a similar style. Gebel is the leader of the megachurch River Church, originally from Anaheim, California, his religion is Protestantism – evangelical Christianity – and not Catholic. These pastors are often identified by their charisma and the modern “show” format with which they typically present themselves, rather than by the traditional Pentecostal label.
Most social democratic or most centrist sectors would not feel identified with a religious man as a candidate, even more so if he is not Catholic – this weighs on many, even if they do not say it – and they would lean towards an intellectual, a scientist, a writer who can certainly have better discursive tools and ideas that correspond to their desires. But the question arises: Is there a “popular intellectual” in Argentina? We’d have to go out and look for it.
All this is part of the great funnel in which the opposition finds itself, which this year has understood that if it wants to discuss power in 2027, it must do more than wait for the failure of Milei, which has already overcome several adverse situations with the help of the US, the IMF or with the political help of the Pro and other allies. Many social and economic indicators still describe a dramatic picture that has not yet reached its lowest point. UBA’s Gino Germani Institute announced this week that 72% of workers have incomes below the poverty line, meaning that today’s work is not synonymous with eradicating poverty, and this is against the backdrop of recession and growing unemployment. Nevertheless, the outsider president wins the dispute with the opposition.
Maybe it’s time for these different oppositions to have their own “outsiders” of politics, playing on the same field and with the same weapons as Milei, but with different ideas. After all, politics is the art of applying to each historical moment the ideals that the circumstances allow and might be possible. Knowing how to interpret moments distinguishes leaders who know how to gain power.
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