In the opposite direction, the share of supporters of Lula’s non-re-election fell from 50% to 42%, a sign of division in the Chamber of Deputies.
The perception among federal deputies that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will be re-elected in 2026 has progressed considerably, according to a Genial/Quaest survey published this Friday 12. In December, 43% of parliamentarians believe that the PT deputy is the favorite, compared to 35% during the previous survey carried out in June. In the opposite direction, the share of supporters of Lula’s non-reelection fell from 50% to 42%, a sign of a division in the Chamber of Deputies.
This favorable index comes after the customs tariffs imposed by American President Donald Trump on Brazilian products and the improvement of Lula’s image in the polls. On the subject, 49% of members of the House believe that the president reacted well to customs tariffs.
However, the majority of federal deputies linked to the political center continue to bet on the possibility of an opposition victory without the presence of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the vote. For 58% of parliamentarians, Bolsonaro’s support always helps the opposition, but there are alternatives: 55% of independent parliamentarians and 57% of center deputies say that the right can win the 2026 presidential elections even without the retired captain’s support for the anti-PT candidate.
The evaluation of the House’s relations with the Palácio do Planalto remains essentially mediocre. For 50% of federal deputies, the relationship with the Lula government is negative. For 31% it is regular and 19% it is positive. These numbers haven’t changed much. However, there is an improvement in the general perception of management: the positive evaluation of the government in the House increased from 27% to 38%, signaling a slight relief for the Executive in a context of political tensions.
In the ministerial profile, the Vice President and Minister of Industry and Commerce, Geraldo Alckmin, appears as the holder best evaluated by the deputies with a positive opinion of 59%, while the head of the Civil House, Rui Costa, occupies the last position in the evaluation ranking with a negative index of 43%.
After Alckmin comes the Minister of Health, Alexandre Padilha (who improved and obtained a positive score of 52%); the Minister of Communication, Sidônio Palmeira (42% positive evaluation, against 27% negative); the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (45% against 33%); and Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations Gleisi Hoffmann (41% against 39%). The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, have a more unfavorable than favorable perception (respectively 42% negative to 39% positive and 29% to 26%).
The survey also measured Congress’s perception of the justice system. The Federal Court (STF) is evaluated negatively by 49% of deputies, while 36% have a positive evaluation of the Court, highlighting an environment that is still predominantly critical of the STF within the Chamber.
However, the positive image of the President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), fell from 68% to 55%, while the regular perception increased from 25% to 30% and the negative from 6% to 12%. This drop is mainly due to rank-and-file MPs in the federal government, whose positive assessment fell from 77% to 44%. Recently, Motta has favored the opposition in his reporting on issues such as the Amnesty Bill (PL) and the proposed Constitutional Security Amendment (PEC).
The survey was carried out between October 29 and December 11 among 167 sitting federal deputies. The estimated margin of error is plus or minus seven percentage points.
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