The African swine fever crisis, which occurs just before Christmas – with what that means in terms of large family lunches and dinners – has generated a significant setback in the pork sector which will have serious economic consequences for … the next few monthseven years, as has already been proven in countries that have suffered from these health problems.
It is for this reason that the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, with the Minister Luis Planas In the first person, he negotiates from the beginning with the countries to which he exports so that this flow does not stop. But there is another type of economy, the domestic economy, which will experience its particular crucial course. And where the decisions to be made will be more important than ever.
Spanish consumers will be faced with a big dilemma: continue to rely on pork and its variants in the form of sausages and hams; or jump on the beef bandwagon, which is up nearly 20% in the past year.
It is very important to note that to date no cases of swine fever have been detected in animals intended for human consumption. It was only wild boars. Both the private and public sectors have emphasized that it is okay to eat pork. You cannot transmit the disease. It is essential to be clear.
But that doesn’t stop conflicts from breaking out. And here prices will be a key element. Beef, led by veal, saw an increase of 17.8% last October compared to the same period of the previous year, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
A situation that is reproduced in the sheep sector, where traditional lamb increased by 7.7% compared to last year. Even poultry meat saw increases close to 4%. Essential Christmas dishes are being punished by inflation. This does not happen with pork, for which, according to the expectations of the pork sector, its price – already supported – will tend to fall. And if the drop in consumption is pronounced, it is even more so.
Spanish families will have to choose between buying a type of meat at a higher price or betting on pork
In fact, some indicators are already warning against this situation. Last week, in Mercoleida, the reference market for the sector nationally, the price of the product fell by 15%. However, it is the basic material, we will then have to see what the transfer looks like in the value chain. But it’s a sign that a pork tenderloin, or any variation of sausage, will have lower prices this Christmas.
What happens to the meat
Why is meat so expensive in Spain? The factors are multiple and varied. To begin with, the sector is experiencing its own health crisis with what is called bluetongue, a disease transmitted by insects and which has greatly affected the sheep sector. This year, the livestock sector has been on alert, although its impact has not been as resounding as that of swine fever.
But that’s not the only thing. The supply of beef on the market has decreased gradually over the years. And here, the law of supply and demand, in a product that the Spanish love so much, causes tension on the final price. And precisely when it comes to tastes, consumers have identified beef as one of the flagship products, among adults and young people with the current fever for hamburgers, where even the great Michelin-starred chefs spend more and more time.
This is a very complicated year for the entire meat sector, and the wallet will notice it.
Likewise, the production chain, like any other sector, has been strongly affected by rising costs. A situation which is transferred to the final consumer. It is therefore not a single element, but a set of problems added together and with difficult solutions that deal a heavy blow to the pockets of the Spanish people.
There is a lack of fish and seafood
As if setting the Christmas table wasn’t complicated enough, fish recorded year-over-year increases of almost 8%; and the seafooda product that traditionally already has high costs, has exceeded the 3% inflation barrier.
Added to this situation is the conflict experienced by the fishing sector regarding the days when fishing is closed. With the cuts imposed last year by the European Union, many shipowners can no longer go to sea. The Ministry of Agriculture obtained 13 days of grace on an exceptional basis, but as ABC argued, this is an average number of days which does not apply to all ships.
This situation will therefore mean that fresh fish and seafood will not reach certain fishing areas. Another decision that consumers will have to face and which, again, may have an impact on rising prices if there are ultimately fewer products to sell.
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