MADRID.- Pedro Sánchez is set to have his worst end to the year since he became president of Spain. The opposition People’s Party (PP) won the elections in Extremadura this Sunday, the first in the new electoral calendar It could consecrate the opposition to the command of the Spanish government in 2026. Although all polls predicted a PP victory, there were few polls that predicted the worst historical result for the Socialist Party (PSOE) in this territory, one of the poorest in the country, which has been one of its electoral strongholds for decades.
María Guardiola, President of Extremadura, won re-election with 43% of the votebut did not achieve the goal of governing without VOX. In line with the global trend led by Donald Trump and integrated by Javier Milei, The Spanish far-right party was the surprise of the elections: At almost 17%, the number of votes received doubled two years ago. Guardiola, who preferred the elections to govern alone, won only one more seat than in 2023 and the PP will again need VOX’s votes to achieve his inauguration.
The aftermath of the PP’s victory came from Madrid. “Congratulations to María Guardiola on her uncontestable victory. Extremadura has spoken out and said it does not want another sanchismo. History and the wall of Pedro Sánchez are falling. Change in Spain is getting closer,” he wrote. Alberto Núñez FeijóoPresident of the PP, on her X account. In the same vein, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, mayor of Madrid, wrote: “María Guardiola has destroyed the left in Extremadura, a region that has always been socialist. Congratulations.” And he added: “Pedro Sánchez loses every time there are elections.”
The numbers of these local elections left a bittersweet impression on the main national leaders of the PP: on the one hand, they celebrated the setback of socialism, which deepens the fragility of their government. On the other hand, they are aware that the growth of VOX confirms the hypothesis that if they win the next national elections, Most likely they will share at least part of their votes with the far-right party. and therefore you should negotiate with them.
The results from Extremadura confirm the upward trend of VOX predicted by all surveys. A strategic success Santiago Abascalwhich had decided to nationalize this campaign. In recent weeks, the party leader has settled between Cáceres and Badajoz, the two provinces of Extremadura, to personally contribute to the campaign. And he had his reward.
In a scenario of disillusionment with politics, the extreme right recorded the strongest growth. Was the elections with the lowest voter turnout since the beginning of democracy in Extremadurawhich exceeded almost 50% of those eligible to vote, meaning almost 500,000 residents cast their votes. The abstention was a big message for the PSOE, which had never received so few votes in an autonomous community that had ruled for more than 30 years. Also the growth of Unidas por Extremadura, a left-wing alliance led by Podemos, which doubled its number of votes and now reached 10%.
Socialism had reached almost 40% of the vote in 2023 and received the same number of seats as the PP. Just two years later, The deep crisis that the party is going through meant that its candidate Miguel Ángel Gallardo barely received 25% of the vote. Even the most pessimistic strategists advising Sánchez could not have imagined such an outcome. “The result is bad, very bad”Gallardo summed it up in his press conference.
Leaving aside the doubts raised by VOX’s growth, the PP hopes that the victory in Extremadura is just the beginning of a long electoral program that, in principle, envisages three comfortable victories for the opposition. The idea is that Sánchez’s government will bleed between the news about corruption cases and the bad election news in the first half of 2026.
The next elections are coming up Aragonon February 8, 2026. The PP is also expected to be re-elected in this autonomous community. The next date has been fixed Castile and Leonnext March 15th. Andalusiathe community with the most voters in Spain, must vote before June. According to the polls, the favorite for re-election is Juan Manuel Moreno, who is considered one of the PP’s top leaders along with Ayuso.
A government in free fall
Sánchez, an expert in political resistance, is at the door the worst crisis in his seven years at the helm of the executive branch. Corruption cases have multiplied in recent months. Firstly, the allegations against his wife, Begoña Gomezdue to a conflict of interest. Then more serious allegations emerged, such as the file investigating the handling of public construction contracts, which was closed with the arrest of deputies Santos Cerdán and José Luis Ábalos.
Why do these cases particularly affect Sánchez? Both Cerdán and Ábalos maintained a close relationship with the socialist leader: it was they who organized the internal campaign within the PSOE that allowed the economist to reach the top of the party and then position himself as a presidential candidate. When Sánchez landed in La Moncloa, the three were rewarded with public offices and, in addition, first Ábalos and later Cerdán were appointed organizational secretaries of the PSOE until the scandal broke out.
The final slap in the face for Sánchez came last week. When corruption cases complicate the Spanish government, Complaints of sexual abuse against former Socialist officials ultimately brought Sánchez into check. Three PSOE leaders have had to resign from their positions in recent days, including: Francisco “Paco” Salazara close associate of Sánchez in La Moncloa, following the accusation of socialist activists.
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