As the year 2025 is about to end and taking into account that 2026 will be a year without a campaign season, the Argentine economy will begin to grow from January next year, showing encouraging symptoms for several economic and industrial sectors.
stabilization of inflation; reducing costs; possible tax reductions; Taxes and tariffs in international trade They could boost GDP growth and even consumption, a factor that is currently being ironed out and has no spillover effect on population income.
In fact, the year ends with new players and a greater presence of imported products, with a surge in activity that came mainly from the export front – agriculture, energy, mining and knowledge-based services – explaining a large part of the GDP recovery.
At least that is what emerges from the analysis of a report by the consulting firm ABECEB, which analyzes the behavior of various production sectors this year and estimates how they will develop next year.
According to the work, “There were sectors focused on the domestic market that demonstrated excellent performance even in an environment of tight margins and increasing competition from imported goods.”
Construction work in progress
In this sense, the real estate market is identified, which is going through its most dynamic year in the last decade and whose performances are above the levels of 2017, supported by two factors such as the improvement in the purchasing power of salaries measured in square meters – today 3% above the 2018 peak – and the gradual recovery of mortgage loans, which already explains 20% of operations.
However, according to ABECEB analysts, this recovery has not yet had the same impact on construction, a sector pressured by high dollar costs and still low sales values.
In the case of The automotive industry also established itself as one of the winners in terms of domestic consumptionwith patents set to close around 615,000 units in 2025, up 49% year-on-year and reaching the best record since 2018.
According to the document, “the growth is explained by a more modern and diverse offering, the improvement in real wages compared to the price of cars and greater availability of financing.”
The other side is the stagnation of national production, which lost share compared to imported vehicles, the main drivers of growth.
Likewise, the motorcycle market will grow for the fourth consecutive year with 634,000 units sold, an increase of 30.4% this year.
“The increase in disposable income, greater macroeconomic stability and expansion of financing led to a turnaround in demand “Motorcycles are a barrier-free mobility alternative for new segments.”is described in detail in the work.
Common pattern: household appliances
On his part Household appliances also showed momentumalthough with a temporary pause in the third quarter due to price volatility and reduced offering of installment plans.
Nevertheless, sales would close the year with an increase of 19%, accompanied by a 24% increase in local production compared to the previous year, continuing to play a relevant role in the market.
For ABECEB analysts, a common pattern emerges in all these sectors, namely the arrival of new players and the greater presence of imported products, which expanded and modernized supply, reduced relative prices and sustained demand.
But they also increased competitive pressure on local production, which faces the challenge of accelerating investment, innovation and productivity increases in order not to lose ground in a more open and demanding market.
However, by 2026, expectations are improving, with growth in all sectors, although heterogeneity will continue to be a structural feature of the economy, taking into account that export-oriented activities will be the protagonists of this positive impulse, while the rest will advance at a more moderate pace.
The post-2025 scenario of ABECEB’s work shows a ranking of sectors that will benefit from the more stable economic environment that the national government promises from January next year.
The ranking after 2025
In this sense is the document from the consulting firm chaired by the economist Dante Sica places oil production, with a growth of 16.9%, on the podium of the industries most favored by the macroeconomic environment.
In addition, this sector shows a good pace in 2025, with an increase of 13.7% compared to 2024, mainly due to the rise of Vaca Muerta and the investments of the main domestic and foreign oil companies that want to expand their presence in this market.
The construction industry comes in second with an increase of 12.1% by 2026 and with a growth base of 8.4% ending this year, the document said.
In this sector, ABECEB analysts expect a turning point from the second half of the year, with an estimated annual growth of 10.5%, and assure that this will be the key sector of the transition, as it must be accompanied by the recovery of the most dynamic sectors.
The paper identifies the residential segment as one of the drivers of this change in construction trends, driven by a lower inventory of homes for sale and a gradual improvement in the profitability of developments.
In return, the new public works program announced by the national government will encourage the transfer of work to the provinces and public-private concessions on national routes.
In parallel, private non-residential construction will see a more selective recovery, focused on sectors with strong structural demand such as retail, e-commerce logistics, data centers, renewable energy and tourism.
The electronics sector is improving, but is far from its record
In the meantime, Sales of agricultural machinery took third place with 9.5%a percentage that will in any case be lower than the 17.6% increase in 2025.
Although agrochemical production will increase by 10.5% in 2026, the ABECEB report warns that this increase will not be enough to offset the sharp 14.8% decline this year.
Meanwhile, manufacturing of consumer electronics items will grow by 8%. also very far from the 32% that accumulates in 2025although the document highlights that the sector has endured years of sharp declines, reaching 36.5% in 2024.
In other areas, the work suggests that wheat milling will increase by 7.5% and fertilizer sales by another 7.1%, while automobile production will grow by 5.7% and industrial production by 2.5%, always taking into account the indices achieved by each sector this year ending December 31.
In the case of mining exports, the work assumes an increase of 3.8%, after the 14% that this sector will achieve this year.
The knowledge economy is consolidating its role as an export engine with a growth of 3%, which in monetized terms is equivalent to about $9,785 million that it will contribute in 2026, after the 6.4% increase this year.
“Accelerating adoption of AI increases productivity and skilled job creation.”highlights the document from the Sica-led consultancy as an explanation of the factors driving the growth of this sector.
Furthermore, the report adds that “the sector can scale with a stable economy, but faces high costs, global competition and a lack of talent and infrastructure to maintain the pace.”
Consumption with historical record
In this sense, Natacha IzquierdoDirector of Operations at ABECEB, is aware that the sectoral transition process is not yet complete, but assures that “it could be mitigated by the reform agenda – tax and labor – whose impact will be gradual, that is, limited in 2026 and more visible in the medium term.”
In terms of consumption, the analyst expects “a historic record”, after the decline observed for at least three years, taking into account that an increase of 4% is expected next year, due to the recomposition of real wages and the greater availability of credit.
In addition, Izquierdo expects the industry to keep up with this pace, with forecast growth of around 3%, but warns that the decoupling between demand and production will definitely remain, the level of which he estimates will remain around 4% below 2023.
“This is due to competitive pressure from imports and the slow recovery of some manufacturing sectors,” says the ABECEB analyst.
In summary, ABECEB’s work suggests that continuity in export leadership in 2026 will be accompanied by signs of recovery in industry, consumption and construction, albeit still in an adjustment process that requires improvements in productivity, scale and financing to consolidate more homogeneous growth.
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