Under Venezuela’s command since 1999, the Chavista ideology, currently led by Nicolás Maduro, may soon come to an end. Under the orders of Donald Trump, the United States is intensifying its military pressure across the country and signaling a possible offensive to remove Maduro from power and end the dictatorial regime.
In late July and early August, the US government announced rewards of up to $50 million for anyone with information leading to the arrest of Maduro, who was classified as the leader of the Los Soles cartel by the Trump administration. Trump has since ordered a naval mobilization in the Caribbean, close to the Venezuelan coast.
The movement includes warships, advanced fighter jets, a nuclear submarine and the world’s largest aircraft carrier: the USS Gerald R. Ford, used on the sea route to bomb and kill people Trump considers “narcoterrorists.” American military pressure in Venezuela, under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking, could lead to the end of Maduro’s government in the country, according to experts interviewed by the newspaper. Metropolises.
“It is very likely that the United States will attack Venezuela militarily. Maduro could be killed in an American attack, be deposed by his generals or flee the country. Despite this, the power structure that Chavismo has established in the country, with the partisanship of the armed forces, the judiciary and other institutions, will be very difficult to dismantle. It will take years,” said Maurício Santoro, political scientist and contributor to the Marinho Center for Political and Political Studies. strategic.
If this intervention occurs, it will be the first time the United States has directly attacked a South American country.
The fight against the transport of illicit drugs could be a pretext for the North American military machine to intervene in Venezuela, since the Trump administration disapproves of the economic collapse, the immigration crisis and even illegitimacy, according to Santoro.
Could Venezuela resist?
After declaring a state of exception in Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro ordered the massive mobilization of land, air, naval, river and missile resources; weapon systems; military units; and the operational availability of nearly 200,000 militiamen. In comparison, the Venezuelan armed forces are inferior to those of the United States and the operation of the weapons may lack spare parts due to the economic crisis.
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However, Professor Antônio Jorge Ramalho da Rocha, from the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasilia (UnB), points out that Maduro enjoys better conditions than he thinks.
“The country is not isolated in the world, it counts on the support of Russia and China in terms of equipment and, possibly, financial resources. Above all, in the event of an invasion, not only would the Maduro government count on greater solidarity from its people, but its fighters know the territory better and would fight for their land, for their families and for their nation,” Ramalho said.
Possible intervention would impact Brazil and South America
The possible intervention could intensify the migration crisis, given that almost 148 thousand Venezuelan citizens have already entered Brazil this year, according to the International Migration Observatory (OBMigra). Under Maduro’s leadership, trade relations with other countries have cooled, notably with Brazil.
According to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, these threats and a possible offensive would lead to regional instability not only in Brazil but throughout South America, transforming a zone of peace into a region of chaos. On the other hand, according to Ramalho, after the intervention, Brazil could play the role of mediator.
“The intervention will bring instability to the region and open space for external interventions, including from the United States. If carried out, it will provide an opportunity to stabilize diplomatic action and may even contribute to the rapprochement of Brazil and the United States, since both will be interested in establishing a kind of balance in the region,” he said.
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