This Wednesday, the Senate approved the bill that reduces tax benefits and increases taxation on betting and fintechs, in addition to the distribution of interest on equity (JCP). The project is considered crucial for closing the accounts for 2026, a year in which the government will have to pursue a surplus target of 0.25% of gross domestic product (GDP), or 34.3 billion reais. The objective is to raise around 20 billion reais, necessary to close the 2026 budget, the vote of which is scheduled for this Thursday.
The text was approved in the House in the early hours of this Wednesday and is considered essential for closing the 2026 accounts. We still need to vote on a significant point before the text goes to presidential sanction.
The 10% linear reduction in tax incentives will be applied next year. Benefits provided by the Constitution, such as the Manaus Free Zone and the Simples Nacional, will not be affected.
In addition, the Chamber modified the initial proposal for companies subject to the presumed profit regime and began to provide that the reduction of incentives would only apply to companies with revenues exceeding R$5 million per year, instead of R$1.2 million as the government wanted.
MEPs also abandoned changes to the draft regarding social security relief, which already has its own timetable, and benefits for industrial policy in the information technology and semiconductor sector.
As a result, the expected initial revenue would increase from 19.9 billion reais to 17.5 billion reais. But this loss must be compensated by increased taxation of betting, fintechs and JCPs.
For XP, the proposal would have the potential to increase the federal government’s annual revenue by 20.3 billion reais – a figure that will, however, be slightly lower than this level in 2026 due to the nineteen. However, it is estimated that next year the Executive will be able to get closer to the lower limit of the budgetary objective, that is to say a zero deficit.
In the case of betting, the tax applied to bookmakers’ gross revenues will increase from 12% currently to 15%, linearly, at a rate of 1 point per year, until 2028.
For fintechs, the text presented to the Chamber increases the rate of people subject to the CSLL rate from 9% to 12% next year and 15% from 2028. Larger fintechs, with a rate of 15%, would increase to 17.5% in 2026 and 20% in 2028.
The tax on the distribution of equity interest (JCP) by companies to their shareholders — this is a form of profit distribution used mainly by the financial sector — increases from the current 15% to 17.5%.
The draft also defines that banks and fintechs that authorize transactions linked to unregulated betting houses are responsible for collecting taxes on illegal betting. Natural and legal persons who advertise unauthorized bets will also be held responsible.
For Zetta, which represents large fintechs, such as Nubank, the increase in taxation is a “setback”, threatening progress in financial inclusion in the country and going against the agenda of increasing the competitiveness of the sector, which, according to the association, is concentrated in a few banks.
“It is surprising that sectors that have expanded access to financial services, encouraged formalization and increased competition in the sector are being penalized, while other activities, whose negative social effects are already widely recognized and reported, do not face proportionate burdens,” he said.
Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), said that this increase in taxation “is not the ideal scenario” and that any change in the rules after the functioning of the market creates insecurity, because companies have made their calculations based on the 12% rate and the standard tax burden applied to other sectors.
– But it could have been worse. The fact that the increase is spread over three years softens the immediate impact and gives companies some breathing room to reorganize, adjust their business models and rebuild their accounts in order to continue operating in Brazil. However, this is a measure that requires caution, because too high taxation could compromise the sustainability of the regulated market – he said.
The presentation of the text took place after intense negotiations by the government, which went to the field yesterday to request approval of the bill by the National Congress.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva summoned the Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to participate in a meeting with the leaders of the House. The head of the economic team stressed that the department needs 20 billion reais to close the 2026 budget, the amount of revenue anticipated in the original version of the text.
— The volume of resources needed to close the budget is in the order of 20 billion reais — Haddad told journalists while leaving the Ministry of Finance early yesterday evening.
This Wednesday, the leader of the government in the Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), told Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), president of the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ), that he could vote on the dosimetry project in exchange for progress on the tax file. Subsequently, Minister Gleisi Hoffmann denied the existence of a government agreement.
The economic team is trying to vote on next year’s budget this week, the last week before the parliamentary recess. The project under discussion guarantees the necessary resources to achieve next year’s target, which is a surplus of 0.25% of GDP, or approximately 34 billion reais. Without these resources, the risk that the government would have to contain its spending from the start of the year would increase considerably. The government is playing with the risk of removing parliamentary amendments to try to convince MPs to move forward with these measures.
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