The Spanish pig sector is banking on the “bearable” impact of the plague epidemic

“We will see how things develop, it all depends on whether the epidemic can be contained in the country.” 20 kilometer perimeter and how the markets react”, recalls Siscart, who, in addition to being a breeder, is also responsible for the pig sector of JARC (Young Farmers and Breeders of Catalonia). If the containment of the epidemic depends on the macro-deployment of the Agents Rurarels, UME and Seprona who, these days, travel the Sierra de Collserola centimeter by centimeter dead wild boarsthe question of markets is a more complicated task: closing borders is much easier than reopening them, recognizes the Ministry of Agriculture, which these days is embarking on a carousel of bilateral meetings to recover the markets.

The task is simpler in the case of the countries of the European Union, or others that will follow, such as the United Kingdom, which have agreed to limit the focus to 91 municipalities and only for three months; It is more complicated in third countries which, in the grip of understandable panic at the return of ASF, ordered the total closure. In an intermediate position is China (18.9% of total Spanish exports in 2024), which opportunely, almost providentially, agreed a few weeks ago to limit the veto and “regionalize” any epidemic, not to the most localized area, as the EU does, but at least only to the affected province, in this case Barcelona.

“For the moment, we see that the actions of the administrations are correct,” declares Siscart in a report also shared by Ignasi Ponssecretary general of Fecic (Employers’ Federation of Meat and Meat Industries), who, in conversation with ABC, insists that the future of the sector depends on the ability to contain the epidemic within the 20-kilometer surveillance zone, in which there are 55 agricultural operations (including the 16 new entries with the wider perimeter ordered by the EC). The deployment of troops and the agreement reached on Friday to begin slaughter the pigs of these farms – 61,500, with an estimated cost of five million based on the initial calculation of 30,000 sacrifices – are going in the right direction, they add, a strategy also supported by Europe, according to a European Commission expert during a meeting with the media this week.

In a way, the fact that the infection was located next to Barcelona works in its favor, both because of the orography – “an outbreak in the Pyrenees would be almost impossible to eradicate”, adds Siscart – and because of the low density of agricultural operations in the area. “If this had happened to us in Lleida – which concentrates more than 60% of Catalan pork – it would have been catastrophic», he adds. These two circumstances, and if the epidemic is finally contained, are what lead the Catalan Minister of Agriculture, Òscar Ordeig, to speak of an “acceptable impact”, of the order of 1 billion euros, a lot depending on how you look at it, little for what it could have been.

“Faced with the catastrophe, it even seems reasonable”, recognizes a businessman from the sector, who also supports decisions like that of the industry, grouped in Mercollaeida, reference market for the sector, which accepted last Thursday a new price drop pork at ten cents, which was in addition to that of the same amount dictated the previous Monday. Thus, and a direct consequence of the drop in demand, the price now remains at 1.10 euros per kilo, a price that some producers are already emphasizing that it leads them to produce at a loss, but which is considered essential so that the slaughter does not stop and that the meat does not exceed the storage capacity of certain slaughterhouse rooms that are already full.

In a way, the sector is facing the crisis with a certain strength after the transformation process and the strong growth experienced in recent years, both in terms of volumes and the modernization and industrialization of operations and processes. So, for example, with 53.9 million animals slaughtered in 2024Spain represents 24.1% of community production ahead of Germany (20%), a domination resulting from the “spectacular development” of the sector, significantly higher than the EU average. “Only five years ago, Spanish production represented barely 18% of the EU total,” notes the Ministry of Agriculture.

The increase in volumes is explained by the modernization of the sector, which has moved from a historical sector characterized by small and medium-sized farms to a sector an increasingly concentrated industry and where a few large groups control almost all farms, directly or indirectly. “The classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks of 1997 and 2001 were very harsh and many were left behind. Since then, the sector has changed a lot,” emphasize the breeders’ unions.

One of these changes was the decisive implementation of the so-called “integrated” model, that is to say the fact that the small or medium farmer no longer owns his pigs, which belong to the large companies and they pay per specimen raised, in most cases providing feed, veterinary monitoring and other services. Between 85 and 90% of the Spanish pig herd is no longer in the hands of small breeders, underlines the sector. “This gives more resistance and has increased safety and quality standards,” they emphasize, although no one is safe from the impact of ASF. That same week, the Aragonese Grupo Jorge suspended 300 temporary workers from a Barcelona slaughterhouse due to the impact of the epidemic.

Official data on the number and size of farms confirm this change in model. Over the past ten years, the number of small farms has decreased by 32%, while larger farms, notably macro farmsincreased by 35%. Many small producers have fallen, but the sector as a whole has strengthened.

“In recent years, the sector has made a spectacular jump“The ASF is the worst news, but fortunately it has had an impact on a sector that is now very professionalized,” adds Siscart d’Alcarràs.