A study by Opta placed Brazil only sixth in the rankings of title chances. Argentina is the only South American in the top five
December 3
2025
– 00:27
(Updated at 00:27)
Photo: Toro Hanai/Getty Images – Caption: Carlo Ancelotti is the current coach of the Canariño National Team / Jogada10
The Brazilian national team does not appear to be among the main candidates to win the 2026 World Cup, at least according to statistics. A study by the Opta supercomputer, which ran through thousands of simulations, placed Brazil only sixth in the probability rankings. The analysis, released ahead of the official World Cup draw (scheduled for December 5), suggests the Canaries have just a 5.6% chance of lifting a sixth championship.
The supercomputer analyzes the moment of choices
The statistical model takes into account the current moment, the depth of the teams and the recent performance in tournaments. Based on these criteria, Spain tops expectations with a 17% chance of winning the title. It is closely followed by France (14.1%) and England (11.8%), which form an exclusively European platform. Argentina, the current world champion, comes in fourth place with 8.7%, and is the only South American representative in the top five.
The study justifies Brazil’s humble position by citing the team’s rebuilding period. Changes in driving and irregularities in recent competitions weighed heavily on Amarlinha in the simulation.
In addition to the top four, Germany (7.1%) and Portugal (6.6%) also appear with more chances than Brazil. The Netherlands is in second place with 5.2%, closing the eight-team group with a probability of more than 5%.
📊 2026 World Cup title odds (Opta)
1. Spain – 17.0%
2. France – 14.1%
3. England – 11.8%
4. Argentina – 8.7%
5. Germany – 7.1%
6. Portugal – 6.6%
7. Brazil – 5.6%
8. Netherlands – 5.2%
9. Norway – 2.3%
10. Colombia – 2.0%
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