The electoral reform promised by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is heading towards the precipice. The thousand and one obstacles to the constitutional amendment according to the premises that the president raised and that he promised to deliver in January, inevitably point to the PVEM and the PT, the allied parties of Morena who hijacked the proposal long before it saw the light of day, confirmed sources close to the presidency. The reduction of public financing of parties, through the so-called prerogatives, and the disappearance of legislators with proportional representation, known as plurinominals, are the most attractive ingredients that the president presented in her proposal, which was only stated in the speech and which has not yet been materialized on paper. These elements also constitute a breaking point with their allied parties who have used the content of the reform as a bargaining chip in the electoral coalition negotiations for the 2027 mid-term elections which will begin in January. “We cannot leave a circuitous or limited reform to the parliamentary groups that form the Morena, PT, PVEM coalition,” said Morena’s vice coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies and close to the president, Alfonso Ramírez Cuellar.
The situation has put the president and the ruling party, Morena, on the ropes, which is analyzing the path to comply with the presidential word without causing fissures with its allies, whose votes are decisive for the approval or not of the constitutional amendments. The scenarios have narrowed. The first and most viable, say the Moreists and their allies, aims to push back the deadline so that this proposal does not even materialize; the second, assume the cost and deliver a watered-down initiative, without budget reduction and without the disappearance of multi-membership, or, where appropriate, with a symbolic alternative that does not reach the interests of the parties; and the third, elevate the debate to push the citizens’ amendment to a point where the ruling party’s partners are unable to deny their vote. A scenario that is almost impossible to envisage in the short term.
In this context, Morena seeks to change direction, to divert attention from the budget reduction and the disappearance of the pluris, the duo on which the Mexican president insisted so much. All aimed to build a comprehensive reform that emphasized other important, but less controversial, issues. “It would be a great waste to limit the debate to the question of whether multinominal is yes or no. The situation in the country requires a profound reform of the Mexican state,” said Ramírez Cuellar.
The pieces of the puzzle called electoral reform are on the table; The first drafts began to be drawn, heading towards a twist. On the question of public financing, maintain prerogatives only for electoral processes and stop paying the current expenses of political groups. In the multi-member domain, it is proposed to remove only proportional representation for the 32 seats in the Senate and to maintain the 200 multi-member seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
On another front, a sector of the ruling party, closest to the president, is pushing for the abolition of immunity to be included in the presidential reform, which is strongly opposed by the Greens, the Petistas and the Moreists; the reestablishment of the Superior Audit of the Federation, which, under the leadership of Pablo Gómez: “We will exercise our strength, electoral reform will not be the product of cliques” is going through a crisis of transparency and credibility, as are the state audits; a profound reform of the Mexican Congress and the creation of a new national anti-corruption system after the disappearance of the National Institute of Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data. A difficult proposition with limited opportunities for progress.
The Moreistas are setting the stage for what promises to be the climax of the next session of the Mexican Congress. The legislative agenda that defines Morena’s majority will be the roadmap from February 1 to April 30, 2026, a period that includes the first session period. Electoral reform, changing the date of the consultation on the revocation of the mandate so that it coincides with the 2027 elections and not 2028, as well as the elimination of constitutional jurisdiction, were presented as part of the important package that will be submitted for debate in Parliament. Two of these issues, electoral reform and the elimination of constitutional jurisdiction, are already subject to a negative vote by their allied parties and also the opposition.
The presidential commission responsible for carrying out the drafting of the initiative that Sheinbaum will send, under the leadership of Pablo Gómez, historic politician of the Mexican left, concluded with the consultation forums in which different sectors of society participated. The analysis phase has begun with a view to delivering a legislative product on February 1 to the Mexican Congress, which must analyze, discuss and vote on the proposal in the first half of the year. The outlook is far from encouraging. The troubled river as the 2027 elections approach between the internal conflicts that the distribution of candidates leaves between the triad of allied parties and the attempts at rupture and division that brew in the bowels of the ruling party during the process, Morena weighs the pros and cons of the multi-member electoral reform that failed during the six-year mandate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and is now pointing in the same direction.
The heavyweights of the PVEM, the PT and Morena himself see in Sheinbaum’s attempts to achieve reform an unnecessary presidential battle and an exposure to the approach of the mid-term elections, the pulse of the presidential elections. “If he presents it in his terms, we do not know if it will obtain the votes,” say the members responsible for analyzing the proposal. Among the Greens, they clearly see that the proposal will not succeed and that, if necessary, the debate will be frozen.
This approach has faced resistance from allies and opponents since its inception. “It’s a reform that was stillborn,” launched a leadership of the Greens, which does not dare to reject it categorically, because it insists on the fact that its content is still unknown and that there are well-founded doubts about its presentation. The president said the proposal was on track and was about to be sent to Congress. In this context, the best solution they see in the cherry group is that it is a softened initiative or, in the most extreme case, in its terms, but without the possibility of progression, a political cost for Sheinbaum who would see her power weakened, once again, in relation to the parties that brought her to the presidency. On several occasions, Morena and his allies ignored amendments sent by the president and made changes without presidential consensus. As is the case with the reform prohibiting nepotism in elective positions, that is to say the inheritance of positions, applicable from 2027. In this case, the Greens managed to make it effective until 2030, beyond the will of Sheinbaum.
The countdown for electoral reform threatens to activate in the first weeks of January, although, privately, the political cost to Sheinbaum and the effects that the initiative will have on the official alliance are still being analyzed in the terms indicated by the president. A controversy that can be spared to focus on other issues of primary importance in economic and security matters, say legislators from the three parties.
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