“If we do not sign with Mercosur in the coming days, it will be death.” This is how a senior EU diplomat expresses himself in statements to EL ESPAÑOL on the fate of the largest trade agreement that Brussels has negotiated so far (it would create a market of 700 million inhabitants), in a long and tortuous process that It took 25 years.
A few meters from the finish line, the EU pacts with the bloc formed by Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – the main promoters of which are the president of the government, Pedro Sanchezand the German Chancellor, Frédéric Merz– This on the verge of total collapse due to Paris’ delaying maneuvers.
While the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyenis preparing to fly to Brasilia and sign the agreement next Saturday, December 20, the French Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornulaunched a last minute offensive to blow him up: his latest excuse is that he needs more time, so he asks postpone the signing until 2026.
“It is clear that the conditions are not met that the EU Council votes on authorizing the signing of the agreement. “France requests that the December deadline be postponed in order to continue the work and obtain legitimate measures to protect our European agriculture,” Lecornu said in a press release.
On the opposite side, Spain and Germany insist that Mercosur agreement be signed before the end of the year. They consider it a strategic priority because it will allow the EU to open new markets to offset the increase in customs duties decreed by Trump and, at the same time, reduce dependence on China for key products like rare earths.
“Mercosur is very important for us. The Danish presidency is taking a very firm position and we support this dynamic so that it can move forward,” government sources explain.
At Moncloa it is also emphasized that the countries of the Latin American bloc have expressed their impatience to complete the agreement. The EU believes that Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva He is the only one with sufficient authority within Mercosur to push the deal forward, an opportunity that will pass when he leaves the bloc’s presidency at the end of the year.
The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as well as the Presidents of Uruguay, Luis Lacalle; Argentina, Javier Milei; Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; and Paraguay, Santiago Pena, when announcing the agreement in December 2024
“At a time when the United States is closing itself, the EU must act as a bastion of trade and cooperation. This will be more and more important in the future,” said another European diplomat, outraged by France’s attempted boycott.
In reality, Paris is trying to bring together a blocking minority to reverse the agreement with Mercosur. Poland and Hungary have already announced that they will also vote against, while Austria and Belgium abstain. But with these countries, it is not enough to end the pact.
The decisive vote goes to Italy, which until now has been operating in ambiguity. The Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni he keeps his cards to himself, but if he finally opts for “no”, it will cause the definitive collapse of the pact with Mercosur. The motto of Brussels is therefore to move forward with the greatest caution.
France, which has always rejected the agreement with Mercosur, considering it a threat to its livestock sector, recognizes that the community executive has responded in recent months to some of its concerns. First, with an agricultural safeguard clausewhich will be approved this Tuesday by the European Parliament.
Second, Brussels announced strengthening phytosanitary controls at the border and in third countries from 2026 to guarantee food security. Finally, Von der Leyen promised to introduce “mirror clauses” with the aim of ensuring equality in production conditions.
“However, These advances remain incomplete and they must be specified and applied in an operational, solid and effective manner to see and evaluate all their effects,” said the French Prime Minister in a press release published Sunday evening.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has the fate of the Mercosur agreement in her hands
Von der Leyen’s team also responded forcefully to the umpteenth French boycott attempt. “In the opinion of the Commission, signing the deal now is critically importantboth from an economic, diplomatic and geopolitical point of view”, underlined his Commerce spokesperson, Olof Gil.
“The Commission listened carefully to European farmersto consumers, Member States and MEPs, and acted decisively by responding to all concerns and requests with effective complementary measures,” insists the spokesperson.
The community executive affirms that the agreement with Mercosur – which is based on in the exchange of Latin American beef and agricultural products for cars and machinery from the European Union – will save European exporters €4 billion a year in customs duties.
“But the importance of the agreement goes far beyond the economic benefits. It is relevant for the world and for the global economy because it would send a clear signal that Rules-based agreements continue to offer considerable value and safe haven to move forward in such complicated times,” concluded Gill.
The realization or failure of the agreement with Mercosur will largely depend on the choreography of the coming days. After Tuesday’s vote in Strasbourg, the Danish EU presidency plans to reach a deal with the European Parliament on Wednesday and then put the deal to a vote by governments.
The central scenario handled by Brussels is that this issue ends up on the agenda of the summit of European leaders which will take place on July 18. “It’s an intelligent strategy because then Italy will no longer be able to continue hiding behind France,” say the sources consulted.
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