What will happen to the Venezuelan opposition when its political and media star crosses the border and may not be able to return? Today is the great unknown that Venezuelan politics is going through after María Corina Machado left the country to go to Oslo where she will receive (a day late) her Nobel Peace Prize. His journey, presented as a historic – and heroic – gesture now opens up an unpredictable scenario: what will happen if the greatest opponent legitimized in recent years to dethrone Chavismo does not return?
His aides say Machado will spend time abroad, using the reward to put Venezuela at the center of the global table. We don’t know if it will take weeks or days, or if we want to return to Chavismo, if it will be allowed. The opponent has repeated these days in several interviews her intention to return. “I’m not saying how it’s going to happen, but there is every possibility that we can come back and also end this tyranny very soon,” I told reporters in Oslo. “Come back when security measures are taken, follow Maduro to power,” he added.
In her speech read by her daughter in Oslo, María Corina Machado maintained the expectation of imminent change in Venezuela. “The world is amazed by what we have accomplished. And soon you will witness one of the most moving images of our time: our return home.” It is still difficult to imagine what the end will be.
It’s unclear what next step is ahead for Machado and there are still more questions that need to be answered. Will there be a regime change in a short period of time like his prediction? What will happen if that doesn’t happen and she can’t come back?
Perhaps the only consensus is that Machado’s venture was extremely risky because it endangered his most valuable asset: trying to topple Maduro from within. Chatham House’s Christopher Sabatini warns that without a physical presence in Venezuela, Machado would lose the emotional connection that has made him the most influential opposition figure in recent years. “Venezuelans want someone who is with them, who suffers what they suffer. If they leave – and nothing changes – they will end up looking for another character.” Quedarse, it is said, “is a very strong symbol” in a country from which more than a million Venezuelans have left.
“It’s very important that María Corina is in Venezuela. It’s part of her brand,” says Phil Gunson, senior Crisis Group analyst from Caracas. For Gunson, Machado’s stay in the country was a fundamental part of his political identity, especially compared to other opposition leaders who, after going into exile, lost their influence on the national scene. “She says that the transition is made, that Maduro has no alternative, but the problem is failing,” reflects the analyst who has lived in Venezuela for 26 years. “If I fail and she leaves, she risks losing her relevance,” he adds.
Venezuelan writer and analyst Moisés Naím calls for caution in the face of premature analyses. “The Nobel ceremony, whether it comes to us or not, is a very important element of legitimacy which puts the Maduro regime into practice,” described this artist, the day before the gala. No one refuses to compare María Corina’s leadership with that of other opponents who found themselves in exile. “He is not another leader, he is not Juan Guaidó, he is a leader who obtained 67% of the votes (for his candidate Edmundo González). There is no more legitimized politician than María Corina,” he affirms. And I don’t think the opposition can resist it: “If you managed to do everything while hiding, imagine what you can’t do for anything in the world.”
The political scientist Marisela Betancourt evokes in this scenario the danger of a “guidance” of Machado’s leadership. That is to say, international legitimacy – amplified now by the Nobel Prize – does not compensate for the loss of real influence inside the country. For Betancourt, the strength of Machado’s clandestinity was fading anyway. “It was a paralysis in the face of reality. She has very important leadership, but if she leaves all the bets to the United States, governed by an irrational president.
Bétancourt He is one of those who think that Machado’s departure was not possible without some sort of agreement with Chavismo. And he defies the fact that the regime agrees with his exit: a leader who calls him a “terrorist” but he cannot stop without being visible, and that the country has lost its capacity for direct action in a fractured society. “When we leave, we can’t go back,” he assures us.
Machado’s apuesta moved the table, but did not order it. Her return – her inability to return – will define her own political destiny on the ground, like the hope that thousands of Venezuelans have placed in her. Either way, many of these moves will depend on the touches played by Donald Trump, who continues to play multiple games at the same time.
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