While politicians and diplomats from the United States, Ukraine and Europe analyze the details of Washington’s peace plan, Ukrainian public opinion is debating how Russia’s war against Ukraine might end.
In this debate, the question of what the “red lines” are, i.e. those that should under no circumstances be crossed in a possible negotiation, plays a central role.
No to a diplomatic solution at any price
Various polls show that the majority of the Ukrainian population is unwilling to accept peace plans that include territorial concessions or do not include security guarantees.
A study by the New Europe Center shows that almost 65 percent of citizens believe that Ukraine should not negotiate with Russia without security guarantees, and more than 86 percent are convinced that freezing the front line would only delay new Russian aggression.
Another poll by the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev showed that 75 percent of the population rejects the currently discussed peace plan, which envisages the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas and a limit on the number of the country’s armed forces.
“The majority is open to negotiations and ending the war through diplomatic means and is even prepared to make difficult compromises. At the same time, however, plans that are perceived as surrender are rejected,” Anton Hrushezky from the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev told DW. “As we see, there is a stable majority of Ukrainians who are ready to hold out the war for as long as necessary.”
Little room for maneuver for the leadership in Kyiv
This clear position of the company also benefits the Ukrainian authorities. Oleksiy Haran from the “Democratic Initiatives” Foundation emphasizes that this is not a new phenomenon: Even during the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, public opinion marked red lines that should not be crossed.
“Today, public opinion is helping Volodymyr Zelensky to resist US pressure and make it clear what the Ukrainian people will not accept. The company’s position is an argument for Zelensky in negotiations with Washington, as he can argue that discontent could destabilize Ukraine and provoke an internal conflict, and that is exactly what Vladimir Putin wants,” says the political scientist.
Willingness to protest against an imposed peace
For this reason, Haran said, the Ukrainian leadership will not sign any agreements that could provoke protests in the country. Surveys show that the population is ready to take to the streets against a peace that is perceived as unjust. According to a study by the New Europe Center, one in two people would protest if the Ukrainian leadership accepted compromises that citizens consider unacceptable.
According to Oleh Saakyan, the government is clear about what things are unacceptable for Ukrainians. Thanks to numerous surveys, the presidential office knows where these red lines lie for the population, explains the analyst.
These include the lack of security guarantees, the transfer of territories and the holding of elections without adequate safeguards. On the other hand, Saakjan believes that if it were “the only bitter pill” in an agreement, public opinion could accept a renunciation of NATO membership under certain conditions. To do this, the pact should contain guarantees that correspond to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges allies to defend a member country in the event of an attack.
A necessary dialogue with society
The key question, says Oleksandr Sushko of the International Renaissance Foundation, is how to reconcile the survey results with the political reality facing the Ukrainian leadership in the negotiation process.
“Ukrainian society takes the question of the price of peace very seriously. Despite all the tragedies of the war and the high human costs that Ukraine pays every day for the continuation of the fighting, Ukrainians want with absolute clarity that the outcome of the conflict does not endanger the sovereignty, independence or the fundamental pillars of the state, especially its defense capability,” Sushko told DW.
At the same time, it recognizes that the search for compromises will be difficult for society and will represent a test of resistance for the relationship between the state and citizens. The expert concludes that the government must now conduct an honest dialogue with the population. Without this prior exchange, serious tensions could arise in the country, he warns.
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