Javier Milei said in an interview that research attributed to a Neder student showed that the lag of monetary policy relative to prices is 26 months, which would put the onset of inflation close to zero between July and August 2026. Enrique Neder, Professor at the Faculty of Economics of the National University of Córdoba and Doctor of Economics, confirmed the existence of the academic study.
“Of course there is the work that the president cites“, explained Neder in statements to Radio Continental Córdoba. The economist specified that it was “a study project to integrate the degree in economics” of one of his students, who explained that “the impact of monetary policy shocks, when implemented, has a lag of 26 months on prices.”
The teacher reported that he personally commented on this study to the President because of Milei’s interest in the topic. “He was always very thoughtful about that and always stuck to deadlines of up to two years. I told him, ‘Well, that’s consistent with what’s being investigated and what’s being tried to check,’ which was just a few months more, so 26 months,” Neder explained.
However, the scientist, like Milei, refused to reveal the name of the author of the dissertation. “I protect my students as if they were my children. So even though I know that they are fully capable of speaking and giving explanations to anyone, I choose to protect them,” the teacher reasoned. The complete work has not yet been distributed or officially published in a scientific journal.
Neder described the research as “a work of excellent standard” and emphasized its academic quality, but avoided providing further details on its content or methodology.
The relationship with the president
The economist admitted that he has a personal relationship with Milei that goes back more than a decade. “I am in contact with the president. From time to time we write to each other, or when he comes to Córdoba I try to visit him and spend a few minutes with him,” he revealed.
However, he made it clear that he does not have a formal advisory role: “I have no influence over his economic advisors. I do not consider myself an economic advisor to him, but we are friends and discuss professional issues, as we have done for more than ten years, since we met at the Faculty of Economics.”
Outlook for inflation in 2026
Asked about the possibility of achieving zero-start inflation in July or August 2026, as forecast by the president, Neder expressed cautious optimism. “Under the same conditions and if we continue to have the same conditions, as the president usually says, under the same pressure and temperature characteristics, I would say yes,” the teacher said.
However, he warned of the impossibility of making accurate predictions in economics. “There are always risks. You have to be prepared for these risks that can be a little contaminated by certain situations, elections, international situations or whatever. “That’s why sometimes the times are not accurate,” he explained.
The Milei government is content to approve the 2026 budget without changes in the Senate
The professor emphasized: “Although we have many ways to perform calculations and predict results, There are problems that depend on other aspects beyond mere mathematical calculation. you could do that.
The economist expressed his personal desire for price stability: “Having lived through periods of very high inflation, hyperinflationary periods, this is what I want most in life.” Stability to carry out policies that can be useful, sensible and beneficial for all Argentines.”
The Monetary Delay Debate
Neder’s comments come amid intense debate over the government’s inflation forecasts. Milei had initially stated that inflation would have a lag of 18 to 24 months, but recently updated this estimate to 26 months based on the thesis mentioned by the Córdoba professor.
According to the central bank’s latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), released in December with November data, the market forecasts inflation of 19.6% for the whole of 2026, implying a monthly average of more than 1%. Private consulting firms also remain cautious. EconViews, led by Miguel Kiguel, warned that “core inflation, which marks the strongest structural dynamics, rose to 2.6%, the highest level since April.”
Inflation was around 2.5% per month in November, far from the government’s promised goal of convergence towards zero by the end of 2025. Now that Neder’s 26-month study has been confirmed, Casa Rosada plans to reach this goal only in the second half of 2026.
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