It is “highly probable” that the year 2025 will end with an “extremely hot” character in Spain and that it will be one of the four with the highest average temperature in the historical series (1961), according to the provisional advance offered this Tuesday by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). “We would have four extremely hot years and, based on the data we have, 2025 will probably be the third or fourth in the series,” Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo said at a press conference.
The organization estimates that 2025, which already has 25 days of heat records, could end with an average temperature above 15 degrees for the whole country, and it will also be a wet year, since until December 9, 633 mm have accumulated, 8% above the average.
“For all of Spain there is no meteorological drought, but there are areas where there would be some, notably Asturias and parts of the eastern peninsula,” the spokesperson said.
“We have had 15 autumns where temperatures have been normal or above normal”
Aemet also rose in the quarter between December and February, corresponding in meteorological winter, above average temperatures are expectedwith a probability of 60% that this is the case on the peninsula and 70% in the archipelagos.
There is greater uncertainty regarding precipitation. In the southwest of the peninsula, there is a 40% chance that winter will be drier than normal, compared to a 25% chance that it will be wetter. In the rest of the country there is no clear trend.
If the fork is moved towards first quarter of 2026, From January to March, warmer than normal temperatures are also expected, particularly in the northwest and in the archipelagos.
A very hot and dry autumn
For his part, the fall of this 2025, which covers meteorologically from September 1 to November 30, was very hot and dry, with an average temperature of 15.4 degrees, one degree above the average for the reference period 1991-2020.
In the Balearics the average was exceeded by 0.5 degrees and in the Canaries by 0.7. He was the ninth warmest fall in the series and the eighth since the beginning of this century. “It is remarkable,” Del Campo said, “that the last fall with below normal temperatures was in 2010: we had 15 autumns in which temperatures were normal or above normal.”
He had a very warm character in the Cantabrian coast, the southern half of the peninsula and most of the Balearic and Canary Islands and it became extremely hot in parts of Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla.
For monthsSeptember was 0.6 degrees above average, October 2.1 degrees (sixth warmest October), and November 0.3 degrees. The highest temperatures among the main stations corresponded to Gran Canaria/Airport, with 39.9°C on September 19and Granada/airport and Cordoba/airport, with 39.1°C on September 17 and 18 respectively.
As for the minimalOn November 22, -6.9 °C was reached in the port of Navacerrada and -5.5 at the Ávila observatory.
He the autumn, despite the recent rains, was dry, itWith an average precipitation on the Spanish peninsula of 166.3 mm, or 83% of the normal value for the reference period 1991-2020.
In The Balearic and Canary Islands have been normal, with 91% and 75% of the average values. Only the west coast and southern Galicia, southwest Castile and León, southern Catalonia, Comunitat Valenciana and western Andalusia presented wet conditions. The most notable rainy episode was the 174.8 mm that fell in Tortosa on October 12.
Rubén del Campo underlined the “fundamental role” that Aemet must play in the State pact against the climate emergency that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, will present this Wednesday.
“By taking management policy decisionsclimate predictions are going to be fundamental,” the spokesperson said. “Aemet is involved, carrying out its scientific task as always,” he added.
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