This Sunday, December 21, thousands of citizens are called to the polls to vote in Extremadura regional elections and elect the new government that will lead the Council. This is what will happen this next weekend after … its current president, the “popular” Maria Guardiolawill call the elections early due to the impossibility of approving the regional budgets for the year 2026.
The ballot papers of 890,967 voters from Extremadura They will be crucial to elect the 65 deputies who make up the Regional Assembly. María Guardiola, candidate of the Popular Party this 21-D, wants to be there again, who will have to improve her results from previous elections if she wants to win. Alongside him, the rest of the presidential candidates of the main political parties in the region are Miguel Angel Gallardo (PSOE), Irene de Miguel (United for Extremadura – Podemos, Izquierda Unida and Alianza Verde) and Oscar Fernández (Vox).
The objective of all will be to obtain the necessary votes in the ballot to form a government, which will be established by the 33 places in which the absolute majority in the regional parliament. A reality which, for the moment, seems very distant, as anticipated by the latest surveys published a few days before the elections in Extremadura. And even if the polls They clearly keep a favorite in mindit does not seem enough to govern alone.
It will be the winner of the Extremadura elections on 21-D according to the latest polls
María Guardiola, of the Popular Partywould be proclaimed again winner of regional elections in Extremadura next Sunday, December 21. This is reflected in the survey carried out by GAD3 for ABC and Hoy, published this Monday, December 15, which places the current president of the region as the big favorite to be the most voted list in the elections which will take place this weekend.
If this pre-election survey follows, everything indicates that the PP of Extremadura would take power. 43% of the votesfalling into a range between 31 and 32 deputies at best. A result which, even if it would improve the data obtained in 2023 by more than four points, would leave at the gates of the absolute majority (33 seats) and would force the “popular” to come to an agreement with the other parties to guarantee its return to the head of the regional government.
The results of the 40dB poll for El País and Sigma Dos for El Mundo are similar, which also place the conservatives one step away from winning an absolute majority. As the barometers carried out for the two newspapers reveal, the PP will obtain up to 30 seatsleaving three of the necessary ones, so will not be able to govern alone as your boss expects.
A little worse are the data that reflect surveys like that of the first barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published at the end of November, which placed Guardiola and his list in a a range between 25 and 29 deputiesa result very similar to the 28 obtained in the 2023 elections. If this result occurs, the conservative formation would remain even further from the desired absolute majority and would be obliged to reach an agreement.
Vox, crucial for the formation of the government in Extremadura
In the event that the PP ultimately does not reach an absolute majority as all the polls expect, the role of the Voice This will once again be crucial when forming a government within the Junta de Extremadura. Those of Santiago Abascalrepresented by the candidate Óscar Fernández, intends to create the big surprise before the regional elections, leading an impressive increase of more than four points in the vote estimates and reaching 12.7%according to the GAD3 survey for ABC. If they won five seats in 2023, the survey now places them in a range of between 7 and 9 deputies.
Although it grows in this barometer, others like Sigma Dos para El Mundo give better results in training. According to these electoral surveys, Vox will obtain 15.7% of the votesalmost double that of May 2023, and has continued to grow in vote estimates since last October. If these estimates are respected, they could reach reach 10 deputies in the elections of December 21.
However, the highest percentage in the vote estimate is that given by the organization of José Félix Tezanos, which suggests that Vox will emerge very strengthened from the polls. If the forecasts come true, those of Abascal would reach 17% polls and would considerably increase its number of seats, moving in a range of between 10 and 12 deputies facing this next political direction.
Whatever the final result, everything indicates that Óscar Fernández and his team will have a fundamental role in the formation of a government in Extremadura. A scenario which, despite the differences experienced by the two parties in recent months, is also approved by voters: almost half of Extremadurians (48%) believe that those of Abascal should support a PP government even if Guardiola refusesaccording to the GAD3 survey for ABC.
The PSOE, the big defeat according to the polls of the Extremadura elections
According to polls, not all parties will emerge stronger from the Extremadura elections next Sunday 21st. For the moment, the barometers indicate that the PSOEled by Miguel Angel Gallardocould experience one of the darkest nights in its history in the region: not only do they place it well below the votes obtained in the last elections (they obtained 28 deputies and 38.84% of the votes), but they give it the worst result of the socialists in Extremadura.
This is the case of GAD3, which predicts for ABC that the Gallardo formation will obtain 27.1% supports, placing the fork places between 19 and 20 for these elections. This result, if it occurs, would mean a drop of almost thirteen points and eight or nine deputies compared to the last elections. Who will participate in this vote estimation will be Podemos-IU-AVled by Irene de Miguel, who could even get 10% of the votes and six seats.
This disaster is also confirmed by the 40dB poll for El País, which places the socialists in 31.2% and 21 seatsseven less than they currently have in the Assembly of Extremadura. Once again, the big beneficiaries of this fall would be the candidacy of Unidas por Extremadura, which would obtain two percentage points more than in 2023, adding one more seat to the four they had then made.
Equally harsh is the reality that the CEI reflects for Pedro Sánchez’s party, which places Gallardo and his team in a range of between 19 and 22 placeswell below what Guillermo Fernández Vara achieved. In the worst case, the Tezanos organization removes nine deputies compared to what had been obtained in 2023, leaving them with only one. 31.6% voting intentions.
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