The main energy operators and authorities promoting the development of Vaca Muerta are closely following the publication of forecasts such as the one just published by BP Energy outlook 2025a report that significantly adjusts the Outlook for global demand for natural gas and oil for the coming decades.
The document predicts a slower energy transition than originally planned, which has a direct impact on long-term planning for unconventional fields in Argentina.
At the recent climate summit COP30 took place in Belem (State of Pará, Brazil), the negotiated text has broader and less prescriptive language regarding fossil fuels. In the final statement their elimination from the global energy matrix is not included.and also does not mention methane and upstream decarbonization.
From a strategic point of view, the framework is significantly less restrictive than that envisaged at COP28, so that natural gas continues to be considered “Transition fuel“.
The famous peak oil is spreading
BP’s trend scenario for oil assumes stable demand this decade an estimated peak around 2030 and a gradual decline from 2035. This outlook represents an upward revision to last year’s forecast and suggests structurally more sustained demand.
In an upward revision, Outlook projects 2025 Oil consumption will be around 83 million barrels per day (Mbbl/day) by 2050, higher than the 76.8 Mbbl/day estimated in 2024. This implies a need of an additional 6.2 Mbbl/d over this horizon.
This greater resilience is attributed to a combination of factors, some of which stand out a slower decline in demand in developed economiesstronger growth in India and Southeast Asia and the continued momentum of the petrochemical sector, which is establishing itself as the most resilient component.
When analyzing the impact on Vaca Muerta, although global production in North America would see the largest decline by 2050, South and Central America would see an increase in production until reaching a maximum in 2035 (+67% compared to 2023). This context of higher-than-expected global demand through the middle of the next decade provides greater scope for monetizing Argentina’s shale oil reserves.
Natural gas for energy security
Natural gas appears in the new outlook as Key fuel for the transitionwith demand falling later and to a lesser extent than in the 2024 forecasts.
With sustainable growth The 2025 forecast assumes natural gas consumption will increase by the mid-2040s, reaching levels 20% higher than in 2023. Total demand for 2050 is estimated at 4,835 billion m3, representing a cumulative growth of 0.6% up to this year.
70% of the growth will come from the emerging markets (China, India, emerging Asia). Natural gas replaces coal. In South and Central America, domestic demand would increase by around 40% between 2023 and 2050 due to gas’s role as a backup in the electricity system.
But in these estimates there is one geopolitical factor Decisive factor: The conflict in Ukraine intensified the Search for energy security and consolidated liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an axis of international trade.
Strategic opportunity for Argentina
The most important aspect for the development of Vaca Muerta is the significant projected expansion of global LNG trade, which could grow by 74% by mid-century and by 60% by 2035.
This global context of greater demand for natural gas over a longer period of time and the growing importance of LNG provides Argentina with the opportunity to do so positions itself as an important LNG exporter. Developing an export platform based on Vaca Muerta’s shale gas reserves would allow Argentina to supply the global market and secure long-term foreign exchange earnings, thereby consolidating the unconventional formation as a regional and global energy pillar.
At the same time, the country is developing the first liquefied natural gas projects that would make this possible 24 MTPA by the beginning of the next decade. The immediate step is the initiative of Southern Energy, led by the national PAE and the Norwegian Golar, together with YPF, Pampa Energía and Harbur Energy.
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