Two secret services from NATO member states believe this Russia would be working on developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon for attacks the Starlink network, owned by Elon Musk. According to these assumptions The system would deploy shrapnel clouds in space to neutralize satellites, instruments that were crucial to Ukraine’s performance on the warfront.
According to intelligence documents he had access to The Associated Pressthe weapon – called “Zone Effect” – would be designed to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets. In this way, would disable multiple satellites, However, there is also a risk that other systems in orbit could suffer catastrophic collateral damage.
Experts who did not have direct access to these reports are skeptical about the weapon’s viability. That’s what they warn Its use could lead to uncontrollable disorder in the room.This would affect both private companies and states, including Russia itself and its ally China, which rely on extensive satellite constellations for communications, defense and other essential services.
It is precisely these possible negative impacts – including the threat to its own orbital assets – that analysts say could deter Moscow from pursuing the deployment of such a system.
“I don’t believe it. Seriously, no,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would honestly be very surprised if they did something like that,” he added.
However, The commander of the Canadian Army’s space division, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, believed that a Russian initiative of this kind could not be completely ruled out. Especially when previous complaints from the United States about Russia’s development of an indiscriminate space nuclear weapon are taken into account.
“I can’t say I was aware of this type of system. But it is not implausible“He said, adding: “If the reports about the nuclear weapons system are correct and they are willing to develop it further and go to the extreme, I would not be surprised if something just below that, but equally harmful, is in their development range.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP’s inquiries. In the past, Russia has promoted initiatives at the United Nations to stop the use of weapons in orbit. In addition, President Vladimir Putin has stated that the country has no plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space.
The intelligence reports were shared with the AP on the condition that the identities of the services involved not be revealed, so the agency could not independently confirm the conclusions.
The US Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. For its part, the French Army Space Command said in a statement to the AP that it could not comment on the results, but said: “We can inform you that in recent years Russia has multiplied its irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space.“.
According to research, Russia considers Starlink to be a particularly serious threat. The vast constellation of low-orbit satellites was crucial to Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian invasion. which is now in its fourth year.
The high-speed satellite internet service is used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for, among other things, combat communications, weapons guidance and other key functions. It also helps civilians and government agencies in areas where Moscow’s attacks have disrupted traditional networks.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites supporting the Ukrainian military could become legitimate targets.. This month, Russia announced the deployment of a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
Unlike a missile Russia tested in 2021 to destroy an old, decommissioned Cold War satellite, The weapon currently in development would be designed to do this attack multiple Starlink satellites at the same time. According to the secret service, the projectiles could be released through the formation of small satellites that have not yet been launched.
Horner noted that it was difficult to imagine how such clouds of pellets could be precisely targeted to hit only Starlink, and warned that the debris resulting from such an attack could quickly become “uncontrollable.”
“You blow up a box full of pellets,” he said, explaining that this would “cover the entire orbital regime and eliminate every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that is in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly concerning.”
The reports reviewed by AP do not say when Russia would be able to deploy the system, whether it has already been tested or what stage of its development it is at.
According to an official familiar with the results — and other information the AP has not seen — The system is in active development, but details of a possible deployment plan are too confidential to be disclosed. Due to the confidentiality of the data, the official spoke on condition of anonymity.
Samson believed that this line of research could be purely experimental in nature. “I wouldn’t rule out some scientists building something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they think, ‘Maybe we can get our government to fund it at some point,'” he said, even hinting at it The spread of an alleged new Russian threat could be aimed at provoking an international reaction.
“Often the people who promote these ideas want the American side to build something like this, or … they do it to justify increased spending on counterbalance capabilities or to use it for a more bellicose approach towards Russia,” he explained.
“I’m not saying that’s what’s happening,” Samson added, noting, “But people have been known to take these crazy arguments and use them.”
According to the secret service The projectiles would be extremely small – only a few millimeters wide –, This would allow them to remain undetected by terrestrial and space-based surveillance systems responsible for tracking objects in orbit. This would make it difficult to directly attribute a possible attack by Russia.
Clayton Swope, a space security and weapons expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that it complicates matters if “the bullets are untraceable,” although he warned that “people will find out. If the satellites start taking damage, you could put two and two together.”
The exact extent of the destruction these small fragments could cause is still unclear. In November, a suspected impact of tiny pieces of space debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft returning to Earth. with three astronauts.
“Most of the damage would likely come from the solar panels, as they are probably the most fragile part of the satellites,” Swope explained, adding, “However, that would be enough to damage a satellite and probably disable it.”
After an eventual attack, the pellets and debris produced would re-enter the atmosphere over time, but As they descend, they could damage other systems in orbit, analysts warn.
Starlink operates at an altitude of around 550 kilometers. Both China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station are in lower orbits, “so both would be at risk,” Swope said.
The specialist also added that this potential disruption in space could allow Russia to threaten its rivals without actually using the instrument. “Definitely “It feels like a weapon of fear looking for some kind of deterrent or something.”he assured.
Samson insisted The costs and consequences of such an indiscriminate system could deter Moscow from moving in this direction. “They have invested an enormous amount of time, money and human energy to become a space power,” he said, adding that the use of such a weapon “would also essentially deny them access to space. I don’t know if they would be willing to give up that much.”
AP
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