The reduction in withholding tax announced yesterday by the national government will be a… $511 million in tax relief for the agricultural sectoras estimated by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
In this way, the stock exchange company predicted that the national state will collect a total of $1.5 billion $4,809 million10% less than expected under the previous regime.
It should be recalled that the Minister of Economic Affairs, Luis Caputoyesterday announced a reduction of one to two percentage points for all grains and derivatives, so soybeans will be taxed from 26% to 24%; soy byproducts from 24.5% to 22.5%; wheat and barley, from 9.5% to 7.5%; corn and sorghum, from 9.5% to 8.5%; and sunflower from 5.5% to 4.5%.
Despite the decline until 2026, the total amount that the Treasury would ultimately collect would be almost no different from the forecast for the current year, which is estimated at $4,805 millionalthough it should be taken into account that the expected harvest volume for the 2025/26 season will be significantly higher than that of the previous cycle.
For the BCR, this stability compared to the previous year is explained by the “0% retention” which came into force at the end of September.
“According to this scheme Almost 20 million tons were declared for sale abroad without paying export duties.which accounts for almost 20% of the 106 million copies sold abroad this year. In addition, of these 20, almost 14 million were products of the soybean complex, which are taxed at a higher rate than the rest and which, if taxed, would have increased the revenues of the year that is about to end,” explained the Rosario Stock Exchange.
However, another effect of reducing withholding tax is the potential increase in the prices received from the producer for their goods as a result of an improvement in the solvency of exporters.
If the sales price is the same, the theoretical FAS (exporters’ solvency) immediately applies with the new amount of the announced retentions Soy complex increases by 3% if we compare with the DEX that was in effect the week of December 5th.
However, when comparing the impact of the withholding tax reduction year-on-year, the difference is much more noticeable. At the beginning of 2025, the agricultural sector was required to withhold taxes of 33% for soybeans and 31% for soybean oil and meal. If these aliquots had been maintained today, the theoretical FAS would be 290 US dollars per ton, but approxAt the recently announced level of withholding tax, the theoretical FAS is $329 per ton14% more.
On the other hand, the BCR is estimated How many grains are available? currently for sale as the wheat and barley harvest progresses and there are still stocks of soybeans, corn and sunflowers.
In this scenario, the company stated that a price needs to be set 27.16 million tons between soybeans and corn 2024/25, which is about the same $7,084 million based on FAS valuation at current prices.
On the side of Wheatwhich has just entered the 2025/26 cycle, a price must be set 18.6 million tons, which is equivalent to about $3,016 million with regard to the FAS assessment.
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