Javier Milei’s dream of pulverizing inflation and ending his term with a consumer price index of 5% per year seems distant for most analysts. According to private projections The management of La Libertad Avanza will reach the end of this mandate in two years, with inflation between 15% and 11%.
According to the November report from LatinFocus, a platform that compiles the forecasts of more than 30 consulting firms, investment banks and financial agencies, The annual inflation estimate for Argentina is 23% in 2026 and 15% in 2027.
The estimates from the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the central bank this Thursday are somewhat more optimistic, but always remain in the double-digit range.. The forecast is 18.2% in 2026 and 12% in 2027.
Among other expectations, the government has forecast annual inflation of 10.1% next year in its 2026 budget proposal. And for 2027 the estimate is 5.9%.
This year, the REM forecast assumes inflation will be 30.4%. In Milei’s first year of leadership, the rate was 117%. And in 2023 it was 211%.
For analyststhe decline in inflation is constant, although not as fast as Milei imagines. Although they indicate that the price index responds well to the decline in money issuance, the direction of the dollar and expectations influence the indicator.
They manage from IEB a 12-month inflation forecast of around 21%, with 20% considered a “floor” to break“.
For IEB with a view to the future: “High-frequency data points to a rebound in inflation in November, estimated at 2.6%. The REM forecast of 2.3% goes in the same direction. The increase was mainly due to core inflation, with prices rising 2.72%, well above the revised 2.08% in October. “In fact, it is increases in tariffs (electricity, gas), fuel and food (meat and fruit) that are putting pressure on the consumer price index.”
And they assume: “Although a moderate increase in inflation has been observed since May, our diagnosis is not that of a sustained or uncontrolled increase.” We expect the disinflation process to continue its course as this increase is something isolated“.
“Since inflation is a monetary phenomenon, the fluctuation in the CPI is not a reflection of the increase in the nominal value in the economy, but rather the continuity of the relative price reordering process. “When observing the money market, we do not observe an increase in the money supply – as was the case in Argentina in the past – but rather a contraction (-12.5% since October 2025),” notes IEB.
“Where we notice rigidity is in inflation expectations. The Argentinians seem to form them not only on the basis of the money supply, but also apparently take into account other factors, including primarily the exchange rate, but probably also the level of reserves or the level of activity; “It is certainly a weighted combination of all of these,” they analyze.
From the IEB they conclude that “to the extent that activity recovers – as we forecast for 2026 –, The demand for money will also recover, thereby reducing the pressure on the exchange rate. Once this happens, we forecast a decline in inflation expectations, which will allow the BCRA to begin the reserve creation process.”