He accelerated withdrawal of the glacier alpine According to a study published in , threatens to radically change the landscape of Central Europe in the coming decades Nature climate change by an international team led by ETH Zurich.
Researchers warn that if current climate policies prepare the world for a temperature rise of +2.7℃, only one would survive by the year 2100. 3% of glaciers the region, that is about 110 of the approximately 3,000 existing in 2025.
In an even more extreme scenario with an increase of +4℃, the number would drop to just 20, meaning the almost complete disappearance of these ice giants that have shaped Alpine geography and culture for millennia.
The report prepared by the ETH Zurichthe Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) and the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, introduces the concept of “Peak Glacier Extinction,” which refers to the point at which the number of glaciers disappearing in a single year reaches its historical maximum.
According to forecasts, the Alps Depending on the intensity of global warming, they could experience this peak between 2033 and 2041. During this period, the region would lose more glaciers than ever before, a trend that would be repeated on a global scale about a decade later, with between 2,000 and 4,000 glaciers disappearing annually.
The study highlights that the disappearance of glaciers is not a new phenomenon, but has accelerated at a worrying rate in recent decades. The researchers of the ETH Zurich They had already documented that between 1973 and 2016 more than a thousand glaciers disappeared in Switzerland alone.
This trend shows no signs of slowing and, according to new data, will only increase in the coming years. Regions with numerous small glaciers at lower altitudes or near the equator are particularly affected, such as the Alps, the Caucasus, the Rocky Mountains, parts of the Andes and the low-latitude mountain ranges of Africa.
Lander Van TrichtLead author of the study, emphasizes the novelty of the approach: “For the first time we have advanced years in which all glaciers on Earth will disappear.”
Unlike previous research that focused on loss of mass and ice surface area, this work focuses on the number of disappearing glaciers, their location, and the chronology of their extinction. This is what the analysis shows more than half of the small glaciers In vulnerable regions, they will disappear in the next ten to twenty years, an estimate that Van Tricht finds particularly worrying.
The rate of glacier retreat is directly related to the level of global warming. To quantify this phenomenon, the team used three state-of-the-art global glacier models and multiple climate scenarios. In the case of AlpsThe results are conclusive: with an increase of +1.5℃, 12% of glaciers would survive until 2100 (around 430); at +2.0 ℃ the value drops to 8% (approx. 270); and at +4 ℃ barely 1% (twenty glaciers).
The effects are also dramatic in other mountain regions: in the Rockiesonly 25% of today’s glaciers (about 4,400 out of 18,000) would survive at +1.5℃, but at +4℃ the number would drop to 101, a loss of 99%. In the To the and Central Asia, 43% of glaciers would resist at +1.5℃, but at +4℃ only about 950 would remain in the Andes (a loss of 94%) and 2,500 in Central Asia (a decline of 96%). On a global scale, a +4 degree scenario would leave about 18,000 glaciers, compared to the 100,000 that would survive at +1.5 degrees.
The study also confirms that there is no region on Earth where the number of glaciers is not decreasing. Also in Karakorum In Central Asia, where some glaciers temporarily grew after the turn of the millennium, they are expected to disappear in the coming decades.
The introduction of the “Glacial Extinction Peak” allows us to better understand the dynamics of this process. The team calculated that with an increase of +1.5℃, the global peak would be reached around 2041 2,000 glaciers would disappear in a single year. If warming reaches +4℃, the peak would shift to 2055 and the annual number of lost glaciers would increase to 4,000.
This time delay can be explained by the fact that in warmer conditions not only small but also larger glaciers disappear, which prolongs the extinction process and increases the number of annual losses to the maximum.
The data shows that with an increase of +4℃, the number of glaciers disappearing at the peak is twice as high as in the +1.5℃ scenario. While about half of today’s glaciers would survive at +1.5 °C, only a fifth would survive at +2.7 °C and just under a tenth at +4 °C.
Daniel FarinottiCo-author and professor of glaciology at the ETH Zurichemphasizes the importance of these findings: “The results underline the urgency of taking ambitious action against climate change.”
The retreat of glaciers has profound effects not only on the environment, but also on the politics, economy and culture of the affected regions. Traditionally, glacier studies focused on the loss of ice mass and volume, which made it possible to predict sea level rise and manage water resources.
However, the new approach shows that the complete disappearance of a glacier, even if its contribution to sea level is minimal, can have devastating consequences for tourism and local identity. Lander Van Tricht explains it this way: “The melting of a small glacier contributes little to sea level rise. “But if a glacier disappears completely, it can seriously affect tourism in a valley.”
The study provides valuable tools for policymakers, local communities, the tourism sector and natural risk managers to prepare for a future with less ice and water. In this sense, researchers at the ETH Zurich Get involved in initiatives such as: Global glacier accident listwhich aims to preserve the names and stories of lost glaciers, including stories such as the Birch and Pizol glaciers.
The cultural dimension of the disappearance of glaciers is also a central aspect of the work. Van Tricht emphasizes: “Every glacier is connected to a place, a history and the people who feel its loss.” For this reason, the scientific team strives to both protect the remaining glaciers and keep the memory of the disappeared glaciers alive.
The regional analysis shows that medium-sized glaciers like the Rhone GlacierUnder the strongest warming scenarios, they will be reduced to small traces of ice or disappear completely. The impressive Aletsch Glacierthe largest of the Alps, would collapse into several smaller blocks and lose its integrity and its symbolic role in the Swiss landscape.
The study warns that the risk is particularly high in regions such as the Alps, the Caucasus, the Rocky Mountains, the Andes and low-latitude mountain ranges in Africa due to the abundance of small glaciers and their location at lower altitudes. In these areas More than half of the glaciers will disappear in the next ten to twenty yearswhich represents an unprecedented change in the natural environment and available water resources.
The study also highlights that although the annual rate of glacier retreat will decrease after Peak Glacier Extinction, this does not mean recovery, but rather that most small glaciers will already be gone, leaving only the largest and most resilient. This dynamic reinforces the idea that Every tenth of a degree of warming counts to slow the decline and preserve as many glaciers as possible.
The work of the ETH Zurich and their collaborators represent a significant advance in understanding the fate of glaciers on a global scale. By quantifying not only the mass and volume lost, but also the number and timing of glaciers that will disappear, the study provides a solid basis for decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation.
The disappearance of glaciers not only changes the landscape and ecosystems, but also impacts the communities whose water supplies, agriculture, hydropower generation and tourism depend on them. The loss of these natural resources poses significant challenges to risk management and long-term planning in mountainous regions around the world.
The report concludes that the only way to prevent the mass disappearance of glaciers is to limit global warming to +1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement. Any further increase in global temperature will lead to the irreversible loss of thousands of glaciers, with unforeseeable consequences for the environmental balance, the economy and the culture of the affected regions.
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