He The global smartphone market will record a decline of 2.1% in 2026 According to a report by Counterpoint Research, shipping will decline due to the expected negative impact of rising prices due to higher component costs on demand.
This negative forecast for the smartphone segment is in contrast 3.3% growth recorded in 2025 This represents a downward revision of the consultancy’s previous estimate of 2.6 percentage points.
Due to the cost impact and portfolio restructuring, Counterpoint expects Average selling prices will increase by 6.9% next yearcompared with the 3.9% increase in the previous forecast issued last September.
In this sense, the authors of the study point out that Chinese manufacturers such as Honor, Oppo and Vivo would see the largest differences compared to previous estimates, while the manufacturers best equipped to combat the supply shortage will be those with scale, a wide product portfolio, especially in the high-end segment, and solid vertical integration.
“What we’re seeing now is this The lower end of the market (below $200) is more affectedwith BOM costs increasing by 20 to 30% year-to-date,” said research director MS Hwang, while the mid- and high-end segments “saw price increases of 10 to 15%.”
So keep that in mind Apple and Samsung “are the companies best positioned for the coming quarters”This highlights the difficulty for other manufacturers who don’t have as much leeway to manage market share against profit margins.
The deterioration in Counterpoint’s forecasts for the global smartphone market comes on top of forecasts published by IDC in early December that expected a 0.9% decline due to the Component bottlenecks and adjustments in the production cycle.
“That is expected the current global shortage of memory chips “This will restrict supply and increase prices, which will have a greater impact on low- and mid-range Android devices as they continue to be more price-sensitive,” warned the consultancy, which, on the other hand, increased the average selling price to $465 in 2026, which would bring the global market to a record $578.9 billion.
About The Author
