The Amazon faces an unprecedented threat: it could be up to losing 38% of the forest area By the end of the 21st century, according to a recent study by Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU).
This forecast, which is well above the risk thresholds identified in previous studies, arises from the combination of two main factors: the expansion of agricultural and livestock areas and the progression of climate change.
The analysis, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, warns that the scale of forest loss could trigger an ecological tipping point irreversible, with consequences that would reach far beyond the Amazon basin.
The team led by the geographer Selma Bultan LMU has conducted the first study to systematically assess the combined impacts of land use change and global warming on the Amazon rainforest.
How they conducted the study
Using Earth system models with dynamic vegetation, the researchers analyzed deforestation between 1950 and 2014 and projected future scenarios under different climate histories.
The results show that if current trends continue, the Amazon could lose up to 38% of the forest area existing in 1950 for the year 2100. These include a 25% would be due to the conversion of forests into agricultural and livestock farming areaswhile the The remaining 13% would correspond to the increase in global temperatures.
The investigation shows that this level of loss would exceed the critical threshold 20% to 25% deforestation, which previous studies have identified as a tipping point at which the Amazon ecosystem could collapse.
According to Bultan: “This would take us beyond the 20 to 25 percent threshold that previous studies have warned was a tipping point for the Amazon rainforest.The risk lies not only in the magnitude of the loss, but also in the possibility of abrupt transitions from dense forest cover to open, savanna-like landscapes that would affect the resilience and ecological functions of the system.
The study identifies a particularly worrying global warming threshold: 2.3℃. Beyond this limit, forest decline accelerates in a nonlinear manner and significantly increases the risk of sudden forest loss.
The co-author Julia PongratzProfessor of physical geography and land use systems at the LMU, warns: “Based on current policies and strong commitment to climate protection, we are on track for global warming of at least 2.5℃“This forecast places the Amazon in a situation of extreme vulnerability as predicted warming exceeds the threshold identified in the study.”
The Amazon It is the largest tropical forest in the world. According to experts, it hosts a tenth of all carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems, making it an essential part of global climate regulation.
In addition, its ability to absorb moisture from the sea and recycle precipitation ensures the region’s water balance and supports the lives of countless species and indigenous communities. However, expanding agriculture and livestock farming, as well as droughts and heat waves due to climate change, have increased pressure on this ecosystem.
The LMU analysis shows that the risk of abrupt forest cover loss, as opposed to gradual decline, increases significantly as global warming increases 2.3℃.
The authors of the study emphasize in their publication: “The Amazon, the largest rainforest in the world and a potential game-changer in the Earth system, is facing increasing pressures.” Deforestation and global warming. Understanding the individual and combined impacts of these pressures is critical to predicting the risk of large-scale forest collapse. “Our study provides critical insights into the impacts of land use change and climate change on forest vulnerability.”
“We identify a global warming threshold of 2.3°C above which forest decline accelerates nonlinearly. This is accompanied by an increasing risk of sudden forest loss, suggesting a decline in ecosystem functions and resilience. Our results highlight the need for immediate policy action to prevent cascading ecological and climate impacts that extend well beyond the Amazon,” they added.
The ecological and climatic value of Amazon It is incalculable. In addition to its role as a carbon sink, the rainforest is a focus of biodiversity and a support for the survival of many indigenous communities.
The continued degradation of this ecosystem increases the risk of a critical large-scale transition that could transform the forest into an open and less resilient landscape, the authors say.
The research also underscores the urgency to scale up positive progress, such as greater rainforest protection agreed at the 2016 Climate Change Conference Belemand intensify efforts to curb global warming. Experts insist that “The value of the Amazon rainforest is so great that it threatens its existence“.
In the study summary, the researchers emphasize that the Amazon It is an important part of the climate system and a biodiversity hotspot and performs many other ecosystem functions. The work concludes that unless urgent and coordinated action is taken, the region could cross an ecological threshold of no return before the end of the century, with consequent loss of biodiversity, ecosystem functions and the ability to regulate climate on a global scale.
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