winter neither stops war nor brings peace: It is a decisive factor in the conflict, but it tilts the scales neither in favor of Ukraine nor in favor of Russia, in a conflict more entrenched than anything else. In December 2025, the picture is not much different from a year ago; kyiv launched a counter-offensive at the end of 2022 and since then seems to have limited itself to maintaining the battle. In the meantime, he recommends continuing to benefit from the support of its allies, particularly Europeans, because the United States only wishes to accelerate the peace talks which remain in a sort of vagueness despite the meetings between the parties.
THE the front line barely moves, while Moscow strengthens in Donbass (fundamental in a future cessation of hostilities agreement), without wanting a ceasefire – which Ukraine defends – and with massive attacks against the regions surrounding the capital, like the wave which still caused deaths in the regions of kyiv and Yitomir this Tuesday: it is not a frozen conflict, but it changes little over time. An era that Putin dominates and which, in reality, works to the disadvantage of Volodimir Zelensky.
What is the present moment situation in Ukraine?
What is happening on the ground?
The reality is that on the front, the situation is tilting in favor of Russia, but without decisive strategic changes, which works in favor of Putin, who is in no hurry. The land front remains relatively stabilized in large areas of the east and south of the countrybut with daily fighting, artillery attacks and massive use of reconnaissance and attack drones by both sides. Russia maintains the tactical initiative in certain sectors of Donbass, with very limited and costly advances in human and material terms, while Ukraine favors defense in depth and containment, avoiding ruptures in the front.
In territorial terms, Russia controls approximately 18-20% of Ukrainian territory, including almost the entire Luhansk region, a large part of Donetsk, the land corridor to Crimea and the peninsula (illegally annexed in 2014) in its entirety. The front lines are characterized by trenches, minefields and fortified positions, similar to positional warfare. Western estimates put the total number of casualties (dead and injured) at several hundred thousand for each side from 2022, with increasing pressure on personnel reserves, particularly in Ukraine, and sustained recourse by Russia to partial mobilization and recruitment of volunteers.
At the strategic level, Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy and logistics infrastructure, particularly during winter, with the aim of eroding the economy and civilian morale.while Ukraine responds with long-range attacks on warehouses, airfields and military targets in Russia’s rear and in Crimea. The fact that the conflict continues to drag on (it is already the third full winter of war) works to the disadvantage of Ukraine, which is becoming exhausted, and clearly in favor of Russia, which knows that it has an advantage… the same one that it can have at the negotiating table.
Is there progress in the peace negotiations?
Negotiations are also progressing. The plan launched by Donald Trump two months ago remains on the table, which has been refined by Ukraine, European allies and also in conversations with Russia, which for the moment is not going through the hoops: the key element remains control of Donbassbut it seems that the basis of the agreement will be based on the situation on the front; The pact could leave things as they are without the need for Ukraine to recognize Russian control in the east. This path, in the eyes of former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymitro Kuleba, for example, could make sense, as he admitted in an interview with 20 minutes.
Zelensky put on the table an updated version of the plan in which Ukraine is open to withdrawal his Donbass troops on condition that Vladimir Putin does the same and a demilitarized zone is created, which was already proposed in one way or another in the first version of the road map. Likewise, he made it clear that the country could hold elections in parallel – they have not been held since 2019 due to the war – while peace talks continued and a possible deal to end the conflict was voted on. “Ukraine will submit this agreement for ratification by Parliament or hold a national referendum for approval in a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ format. Ukraine could decide to hold elections simultaneously with the referendum“, he commented.
In fact, Zelensky himself will meet with Trump on Sunday in Miami to try to break the deadlock in peace negotiations. Meanwhile, it is Putin who remains unmoved and insists on his territorial demands, while the Russian delegation for these talks has also resumed contacts with the American side. But Russia, wants to control Donbass: this is the total condition that the Russian president poses for reaching a peace agreement in Ukraine, according to Kommersantone of the most important newspapers in the country. In any case, Moscow is open to a territory exchange with kyiv, but the Kremlin has not given further details. In this sense, the Russian leader stressed that the recognition by the United States of Crimea and Donbass, made up of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as Russian territory would be fundamental in the negotiations.
At the same time, the EU, after the meeting in Berlin of several leaders with Zelensky, presented its own idea: a multinational force deployed in the future in a peaceful Ukraine, a Ukrainian army limited to 800,000 soldiers in times of non-conflict, and a US-led monitoring mechanism for this peace. All of this, in fact, would have Zelensky’s approval and could be included in the final text as long as Moscow accepts it; and at the moment this is not happening.
On the diplomatic level, the conclusion is that things are not moving much either, even if last week French President Emmanuel Macron, left the door open for the EU to resume contacts with Vladimir Putin. The meetings in Florida between the delegations, the summits in Brussels, the trip of Trump’s envoy to Moscow or the presence of Zelensky in Berlin are steps, but even more for the gallery than tangible progress towards peace. And even if diplomacy does not progress, the army remains alive.
Aid to Kyiv continues to flow
Meanwhile, kyiv’s allies want kyiv to have “the strongest possible position” at the negotiating table, and that is why last week the EU took an important step with the deal. an “interest-free” loan through common debt, in the short term, which will strengthen support for Ukraine while seeking a definitive adequacy for the use of Russian assets frozen, which is the “mother” of all debates. This “third” way represents a mix between the two that Brussels had proposed and appeases the reluctance of Belgium (which houses 62% of these assets, or 210 billion) on the one hand and of the countries which have doubts about the guarantees which can be given by resorting to the funds confiscated by Moscow on European territory.
In this regard, a long debate took place on how to fulfill the commitment to cover Ukraine’s financial needs. for the next two years, for an amount of around 90 billion euros. The common debt was chosen because of the impossibility of resorting, at least for the moment, to Russian money. At the same time, the EU released an additional 2.3 billion to support kyiv, as well as to “ensure” energy supplies for the winter. Zelensky warned that these funds would be used for one thing or another depending on how far the war reaches: If there is a ceasefire, reconstruction; If the conflict continues, purchase military equipment such as drones or long-range missiles.
And Europe as a whole is also under threat: In addition, German Foreign Minister Johan Wadephul, warned Tuesday that “security can only be maintained” across the continent “if security is maintained against Russia.” This was expressed in statements to the DPA agency. “I can only strongly recommend that no concessions be made in any of these projects and plans, because only a position of strength will give us greater security within NATO and also in Germany,” he stressed, while warning that it is necessary to maintain support for kyiv from the Europeans. “The more stable the peace situation in Ukraine, the sooner Ukraine can safeguard its own interests, the better for all of Europe.”
In reality, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is already a war on three fronts: the military, the diplomatic (which was non-existent for a long time) and the economicfocused above all on supporting Zelensky’s allies for the invaded country. And of the three, only the third seems to keep a good pace. The first gives a picture already frozen in favor of Moscow, Zelensky’s troops maintaining the type but in the “catenaccio war” phase; good news for Putin. The second, which depends on the first, is progressing slowly… and this is again good news for Russia.
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