The time for harmony in transatlantic relations is over. For Donald Trump’s United States, Europe, the project of values and defense of the rules-based multilateral order, is an adversary. The one that must try to reform itself to follow the illiberal and reactionary path that characterizes Trumpism and that follows its European allies, the ultra Caballos de Troya, the national populists and the Eurosceptics who seek to energize the European Union from within and who, in its new national security strategy, always have the objective of promoting Washington – which they describe as “patriotic” parties and political formations. A promise of interference, of interference in European sovereignty, which could look more like autocracies like Russia or China (even if, in all probability, they would not disclose their intentions) than like a historical ally who is not there.
The document, published publicly in the early hours of July, outlines the Republican magnate’s administration in the face of geopolitical challenges for the United States and globally. It comes at a time when relations between the United States and Europe are at an all-time low, due to the trade war and after Washington initiated negotiations on the Western continent to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. And make your playbook very clear. “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory,” he says. Yes, this implies that “cultivating resistance” follows.
Something that, on the other hand, resonates with Washington historically. Like during the Cold War. “The difference is that then there are democratic values,” emphasizes Ian Lesser, distinguished researcher at the German Marshall Fund, who also indicates that the strategy marks Trump’s preference to deal and negotiate with particular people, parties or governments and not with organizations and entities, such as the EU.
It divides and defeats all life which intends to remain strong for the bloc of 27 countries and 450 million inhabitants. Debilitate the EU, as I have already tried in Russia, whose approach is reminiscent of the document from the American administration, which seems to have more affinities for the Kremlin than for Brussels.
Today, Trump is leveraging his power and expansion on social media to push neighboring parties toward the MAGA idea (Make America Great Again). The Ultras as an Alternative for Germany, where the US president gave his support in last year’s elections. Its technoligarchs are also trying to demolish a Europe to their liking or with benefits for their companies, with less regulation and less consumer and data protection. And they are using blackmail to do this, suggesting that they will be able to recalibrate their policy in advance if Europe lowers its technological rules, recalls a senior community source.
The National Security Strategy is a written declaration of culture war. Very in line with what the American vice-president, JD Vance, launched in the latest fever during the Munich security conference. His speech – in which he assured that freedom of expression “is under attack in Europe” – moved those who believed even their allies, who must then have realized that things had changed.
However, there is still hope. At least publicly. “The United States continues to be our greatest ally,” High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Kaja Kallas said on Saturday at the Doha Forum in Qatar. “We have not always agreed on different issues, but the general principle remains there: we are the greatest allies and we must stay together,” declared the head of European diplomacy.
“Dear American friends, Europe is your best ally, not your problem,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “And we have common enemies. At least as has been the case over the last 80 years. We must remain firm on this point; it is the only reasonable strategy for our common security. Unless something has changed”, was posted on the social network of European democracies and their regulation.
For Mujtaba Rahman, coordinator of European unity in Eurasia and consultant in political risk analysis, the American administration’s document confirms the greatest fears of many European capitals. Of course, they were aware of the shift in support for Ukraine, the replanting of NATO or the trade war, but they were above all aware of the ideological clash, underlines this analyst: “This strategy is explicit on this policy, the desire of MAGA to work with the allies of the Brazilian states, to support the far-right parties to help overthrow the government in place,” he said on the telephone.
“This is an important strategic problem, because there is no good answer on how the Europeans can respond to the political inclinations of the administration. This plays with the most important fear that the Brazilian states have towards the American administration,” he insists.
For Rahman, dealing with this type of interference in domestic politics, which comes from a supposed ally, but if it is the United States, is much more difficult than those which come from hostile countries. “Russia’s electoral interference has become the norm. It is predictable and, by hypothesis, undesirable, but when it comes from an ally, from a country supposed to be the guarantor of European security, the situation is completely different and much more problematic.”
“The strategy is the definitive confirmation, as we need, that the United States considers us, liberal democracy and European integration, as adversaries,” says Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internationali y professor at John Hopkins University. To be able to act, Europe must once again accept the reality of this divorce that some are trying to accept and support. “Trump is not unpredictable, inconsistent or incoherent. He is extremely consistent, consistent and predictable when it comes to Europe: he wants to destroy us,” says Tocci.
“We have to be extremely careful in the way we approach our weaknesses, for example in defense, to increase our dependence on the EE UU. If they see us as adversaries, we are no longer the most sensible in the world,” says the expert, who believes that it is very difficult to reduce these vulnerabilities and dependencies in a short period of time but that they must be remedied definitively. “Sometimes, as Europeans, we should step back and think: if there are countries much smaller, much weaker, much poorer than us and with much greater capacity for action than Europe, perhaps our main problem is psychological rather than capacity. This is where we should work,” concludes Tocci.
“The US national security strategy is clear evidence and provides numerous arguments why Europe must quickly build its own defense independence and its own geopolitical independence,” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania said on social media on Saturday. “We have a defense preparation strategy, a short path to our defensive independence. We need it for our geopolitical independence,” said the añadido.
In Brussels, later, after reading the document and after recovering from the fear of seeing in black and white what I knew about the American administration, there was more than one trust, in which there was a shock that led to no longer harboring hopes in a more manageable (least hostile) Casa Blanca that still had them. And from there, those who make decisions do so through action. Hans Kribbe, senior researcher and founder of the Brussels Geopolitical Institute, sums it up like this: “This document should focus Europeans on the geopolitical question that really matters: do we want to be vasal states or a free continent that pursues its own interests?