image source, REUTERS/José Luis Gonzalez
United States President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he had given the green light to documentation to impose a 5% tariff on products from Mexico if the neighboring country “continues to violate” the water treaty it signed with the United States in 1944.
In a message published on his network Truth Social, the president emphasized that Mexico owes the United States more than 986 million cubic meters of water as a result of this agreement of 80 years ago.
And December 31 has been set as the deadline for Mexico to deliver more than 246 million cubic meters of water.
“The longer it takes for Mexico to release the water, the greater the damage will be to our farmers,” Trump warned, calling on Claudia Sheinbaum’s government to “solve” the problem now.
Implementation of the agreement has in the past sparked violent protests from Mexican farmers who say withdrawing water for the U.S. during times of drought seriously endangers their livelihoods.
Mexican products currently face a 25% tariff unless they are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a free trade agreement signed during Trump’s first term that Washington plans to renegotiate in 2026.
Trump met with his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney last week on the sidelines of the 2026 World Cup draw to discuss the future of the trade deal.
The talks marked the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Sheinbaum.
“The maximum possible amount”
image source, AFP via Getty Images
It is not the first time that Trump has spoken of consequences for Mexico when it comes to water distribution.
Back in April, he warned on his “Truth Social” platform that he was thinking about introducing tariffs and even sanctions.
“Last month, I stopped water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty … and we will continue to increase the consequences, including tariffs and perhaps even sanctions, until Mexico complies with the treaty and gives Texas its rightful water,” he warned at the time.
Her Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum responded with a message on her official X account.
“Yesterday a comprehensive proposal was sent to the Undersecretary of State of the US State Department to regulate the delivery of water to Texas under the 1944 treaty, which provides for very short-term measures. There have been three years of drought and Mexico has complied with it in terms of water availability,” he explained.
“I have directed the Secretaries of Agriculture, Rural Development and Foreign Affairs and the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources to immediately contact the Secretary of Agriculture and the Department of State of the United States Government. I am sure that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached,” the President said.
However, the controversy on this issue continues.
The US State Department reported on November 25 that a meeting with Mexican officials “pressured” the neighboring country to fulfill its obligation to provide “the maximum amount” of water to users in Texas.
“The lack of liquid supplies has exacerbated shortages in Texas and contributed to hundreds of millions of dollars in crop losses,” the State Department said at the time.
The lawsuit follows months of complaints from farmers in the US South and a range of officials, from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
What is in the contract?
In a sense, one could say that the Treaty on the Distribution of International Waters, signed by Mexico and the United States in 1944, has its origins in another agreement concluded almost a century earlier.
The Treaty of Peace, Friendship, Boundaries and Final Settlement (better known as the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo), signed in 1848 at the end of the war sparked by the Texas Dispute between the two countries, stipulated that Mexico would at that point cede more than half of its territory to the United States.
In addition, it also formed the border between the two countries on the Rio Grande – called the Rio Grande by the Americans – and whose waters have always been the center of the conflict in Chihuahua.
The strategic location of the river required a distribution plan between both actors. After years of negotiations and several failed proposals, Mexico and the United States signed the treaty in force today in Washington.
According to the agreement, Mexico retains two-thirds of the Bravo’s main flow and leaves the rest to its neighbor, which cannot be less than about 432 million cubic meters (Mm3) per year.
In return, the USA gives Mexico 1,850 million m3 of the Colorado River every year, which lies mostly on US soil but also crosses the border between the two countries until it flows into the Gulf of California between the Mexican states of Baja California and Sonora.
The agreement also specifies that the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), a binational body, will be responsible for resolving possible differences over boundaries.
The pact stipulates that the US will meet its water deliveries every year, while Mexico will be able to do so in five-year periods.
“It is one of the best agreements reached in history regarding the United States,” former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said in 2020.
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