The crisis caused by Donald Trump’s push to overthrow Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has reached a fever pitch. On Wednesday (16), the United States declared this Caribbean country a terrorist entity – which in practice means the freedom to attack it – and ordered a naval blockade of oil tankers that had already been banned from transporting Venezuelan products since 2019.
However, according to the United Nations Charter, blockades can only take place in the event of a Security Council decision or war, in which case a series of guarantees must be respected. Trump’s trick was to claim that he would only target the 30 or so sanctioned oil workers.
The fact is that the Republican has established the largest naval air force ever seen in the Caribbean, and the closest thing to a declaration of war was the terrorist classification given to the regime – Maduro himself has been wanted for this in the United States since 2020.
The legal fragility of such a charge and the occasional attacks on drug-trafficking boats spark protests domestically in America, but matter little in practice. It remains to be seen whether the siege will force the dictator from power or whether, with 80 percent coercion coming from Venezuela’s meager fiscal resources, it will encourage the country’s uniformed elite to invite him to leave.
The broader scale of the crisis is already emerging. Last week, the United States seized a ship carrying Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba, opening a new front: Havana depends on the product from Caracas.
With the blockade, the island could be the scene of new demonstrations against energy poverty. This could lead to more pressure on Maduro, given that the Cuban dictatorship has strong influence in Venezuela, where it controls the security services.
Given the caudillo’s resilience, perhaps all that remains is war, which would be disastrous. In addition to the tragedy itself, Brazil and its neighbors would face thousands of refugees and a geopolitical reality for which they are not prepared.
The new American national security strategy defends hemispheric domination. Maduro and his kleptocracy are execrable, but a forcible overthrow could reopen dark chapters of interventionism – Trump is already targeting Colombia, with governance flaws, but democratic.
The government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is seeking a tone of moderation, jealous of the political capital that the rapprochement with Trump in the face of Bolsonarism has brought it. Ultimately, there will be little to do but protest if America’s senseless march does not demonstrate some restraint.
editorials@grupofolha.com.br
About The Author
