Last week, Honduras launched in Central America a dynamic which is already pushing the rest of Latin America: the left is sinking and Donald Trump He is not as unpopular outside his borders as many thought. In a country accustomed to already tense elections, … the explicit support of the American president for the right-wing candidate Nasry Asfoura He changed the planned scenario and strengthened his support in the elections, where he rose completely unexpectedly.
The count remains distressing, with narrow margins and mixed accusations between him and Salvador Nasrallabut the basic data does not change: the right, in which the two are in competition, has devoured the party in power and left the left in power facing a catastrophic collapse, since it does not reach 20% of the votes.
The Honduran shift is part of a continental trend that is accelerating and gaining weight due to the direct presence of the United States with Trump. In Argentinathe previous month’s by-elections offered another indication of conservative progress in the region. Javier Mileicame to power with a shock project and admiration for Trump, emerged from a defeat in the province of Buenos Aires that many interpreted as the beginning of his end. However, the intervention of the United States changed the situation. Trump tied his financial support to continued reforms and expanded aid amid an economic siege.
Far from punishing Milei, voters supported this decision. In the legislative elections, its partners exceeded 40% of the national vote and increased their presence in both chambers. Even in the midst of a recession and with a severe adjustment, a majority of the electorate chose to maintain an ultraliberal project aligned with Trump rather than returning power to Peronism that many accuse of being at the origin of widespread misery.
The White House was linked to this election a financial support program of up to 40 billion in matters of exchange, conditional on a victory for the millists, which finally took place. Trump even jokingly offered him Tomahawk missiles to use against the Peronists, a gesture that illustrates how far harmony has come between Washington and Buenos Aires.
Over the past decade, Latin America It had come under the almost total control of left-wing governments that promised redistribution, a strong and interventionist state and distance from Washington. From Mexico to Argentina, this left wave It was presented as a project capable of redefining the region after the rise of neoliberalism. But this has not resisted the simultaneous erosion of citizen insecurity, recession and mass migration.
Today, the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction. A diverse bloc of conservative candidates, liberal like Milei and authoritarian like Nayib Bukele In El Salvador, this is progressing in societies which, as they expressed during the elections, want change.
Chavismo stole the elections in Venezuela
Yeah Nicolas Maduro If we had not manipulated the 2024 elections, the winners would have been the candidates of Vente Venezuela, the party of Maria Corina Machado. The leader, Nobel Peace Prize winner and declared admirer of Trump, led a conservative opposition that threatened to end a regime supported for years by the Chavista axis, aligned with Cuba and protector of related movements in the region, including the formation of the still Honduran president, Xiomara Castro.
The US leader offers like-minded candidates economic and military support, as well as strong alliances based on brutality and political incorrectness.
The figure of Trump, far from eroding their possibilities, has become an asset for many of them. The American leader offers economic support, military support and alliances based on heavy-handedness and political incorrectness that bind citizens tired of insecurity and economic stagnation.
The result is a continent that abandons the hegemony of the left and make way to the right which, with different nuances, shares promises of public order, fiscal discipline and closer relations with the first power.
Chile: Kast, favorite against the communist Jara
In Chile, the turning point is particularly revealing because it occurred in one of the countries that for years represented the laboratory of the continental left. Four years after the arrival of Gabriel Boric until the palace of La Moneda, the country moved strongly to the right. In the first round of last month’s presidential elections, about 70 percent of the electorate supported conservative candidates, and the right Jose Antonio Kastwho openly celebrates Trump’s victory in 2024, is the favorite to win the second round on December 14 against a communist, Jeannette Jara.
Ken Roberts, a professor of politics specializing in Latin America at Cornell University, sums up the shift in Chile this way: “A Kast victory would reinforce the recent rise of right-wing and far-right forces in Latin America, decisively supported by the Trump administration in the United States. But it would also prolong a longer period of volatile voting against ruling parties in the region’s turbulent democratic waters. This trend suggests that any shift to the right in Chile and neighboring countries will likely face strong resistance and underlying fragilities in a context marked by polarization and severely weakened institutions.
Fight against criminal gangs
Across much of the continent, insecurity and organized crime have become the main drivers of voting. The rise of criminal gangs like Araguay Trainextortion and killings have overwhelmed governments that had promised social reforms but failed to end the violence.
From Chile to Honduras, a sense of lack of control pushed voters toward candidates offering restore order and greater austerity. In addition, Venezuelan immigration, which has become a structural phenomenon, has added additional pressure on countries that were not ready to absorb it and which now welcome the closure of borders.
The “Bukele model” is strengthening
The Bukele model in El Salvador has become a regional reference. Its combination of megaprisons, mass detentions and enhanced powers is closely observed in Peru, Ecuador and in opposition to Colombiawhere conservative candidates present it as proof that it is possible to reclaim the streets and gain security at the cost of limiting individual freedoms. This discourse finds fertile ground in societies which no longer believe in progressive promises.
The proof is Boliviawhere the turnaround was profound. After almost two decades of hegemony of the Movement towards Socialism, voters opted in October for Rodrigo Paza conservative who promises to dismantle state controls that were stifling the energy sector. The fall in gas prices, the lack of foreign currency and the inability of the outgoing government to launch the industrialization of lithium have precipitated wear and tear.
Paz’s victory opened a direct channel with Washington and with multilateral organizations, which see Bolivia as a strategic player due to its enormous lithium reserves and the need to stabilize the economy before it leads to a major crisis that destabilizes the continent.
The key is how long these measures can last. Bukele is doing well in terms of popularity, but in Ecuador, Daniel Noboa goes through a more complicated scenario. He arrived as a young candidate who promised efficiency and order, but his relations with the electorate quickly deteriorated. The consultation in which he sought to authorize US military bases on Ecuadorian territory was a turning point: voters decisively rejected the proposal and sent him a clear message about the limits of aligning with Trump. Added to this is the rise in extortion, murders and kidnappings, which are testing his promise to restore security.